ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie D Czechia Group D - 15 2026

Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Humpolec

Ždírec nad Doubravou Home · Elo 1,454
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Humpolec Away · Elo 1,427
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Humpolec win
Ždírec nad Doubravou win
36.1%
Draw
25.6%
Humpolec winPick
38.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.1%
Under 2.543.9%

How much we know

Ždírec nad Doubravou history50 matches
Humpolec history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Humpolec are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ždírec nad Doubravou are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,454 against 1,427. On rating alone Ždírec nad Doubravou would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Humpolec score more

    1.02 goals a game over 50 matches for Ždírec nad Doubravou, against 1.56 over 52 for Humpolec.

  • Defences are close

    Ždírec nad Doubravou concede 1.66 a game, Humpolec 1.71.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Ždírec nad Doubravou matches, against 56% for Humpolec. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ždírec nad Doubravou
Humpolec
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1454.5
ELO
1426.9
50
ELO · Matches
52
1454.5
Current Team ELO
1426.9
1426.9
Current Opponent ELO
1454.5
27.52
Current ELO Difference
-27.52
0.54
Expected score
0.46
50
History Matches
52
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
46.57
Overperformance
45.34
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.70
2.10
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.59
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
52
1.10
PPG
1.04
30.0%
Win rate
26.9%
20.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
74.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.8%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.3%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
25
1.63
PPG
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
16.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
32.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
52.0%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.02
Goals for per game
1.56
62.0%
Scoring rate
67.3%
46.0%
BTTS rate
55.8%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.96
70.8%
Scoring rate
52.0%
41.7%
BTTS rate
52.0%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
52
1.02
Goals Mean
1.56
1.01
Goals Std
1.79
62.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
30.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.3%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.71
74.0%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.80
62.5%
Conceding rate
92.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
52
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.42
Conceded Std
1.25
46.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.9%
32.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.2%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
38.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
38.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
52
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
1.77
Goal Difference Std
2.27
6.28
Stability score
5.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
52
15
Lead Matches
17
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
58.8%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.71
18
Trailing Matches
20
11.1%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.94
Rest days
78.20
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.83
19
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
0.67
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.07
Portability PPG Range
0.53
53.19
Portability Score
69.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO27.52
PPG0.06
GF-0.54
GA-0.05
PPG-0.33
PPG0.83
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.3%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate29.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std-0.78
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.19
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate10.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.50
Stability score0.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.91
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate21.2%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate1.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-15.98
Rest days-1.26
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO27.52
Current Opponent ELO-27.52
Current ELO Difference55.05
Expected score0.08
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ždírec nad Doubravou

D
Znojmo2–2Ždírec nad Doubravou1 Nov · away
Pick: Znojmo 58% · missed
D
Ždírec nad Doubravou0–0Chotebor25 Oct · home
Pick: Ždírec nad Doubravou 61% · missed
D
Žďár nad Sázavou2–2Ždírec nad Doubravou18 Oct · away
Pick: Žďár nad Sázavou 55% · missed
D
Ždírec nad Doubravou2–2Pelhřimov30 Aug · home
Pick: Ždírec nad Doubravou 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Humpolec

L
Humpolec1–4Tatran Bohunice1 Nov · home
Pick: Tatran Bohunice 57% · hit
L
Sokol Tasovice4–2Humpolec25 Oct · away
Pick: Sokol Tasovice 48% · hit
D
Humpolec1–1Havlíčkův Brod18 Oct · home
Pick: Havlíčkův Brod 45% · missed
W
Znojmo0–2Humpolec4 Oct · away
Pick: Znojmo 52% · missed
L
Humpolec0–2Bystrc Kníničky30 Aug · home
Pick: Humpolec 56% · missed

About this match

Ždírec nad Doubravou and Humpolec meet in 4. liga - Divizie D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ždírec nad Doubravou win 36.1%, draw 25.6%, Humpolec win 38.3%. The pick is Humpolec win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.1%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.