ScoreProb
Challenge League Malta Round 7 2026

Pietà Hotspurs vs Zurrieq

Pietà Hotspurs Home · Elo 1,543
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zurrieq Away · Elo 1,488
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pietà Hotspurs win
Pietà Hotspurs winPick
46.3%
Draw
18.2%
Zurrieq win
35.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.5%
No36.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.3%
Under 2.530.7%

How much we know

Pietà Hotspurs history37 matches
Zurrieq history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Pietà Hotspurs are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pietà Hotspurs are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,488. On rating alone Pietà Hotspurs would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Pietà Hotspurs score more

    2.00 goals a game over 37 matches for Pietà Hotspurs, against 1.79 over 39 for Zurrieq.

  • Pietà Hotspurs concede fewer

    Pietà Hotspurs concede 1.43 a game, Zurrieq 1.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Pietà Hotspurs matches, against 64% for Zurrieq. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pietà Hotspurs
Zurrieq@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1542.9
ELO
1487.9
37
ELO · Matches
39
1542.9
Current Team ELO
1487.9
1487.9
Current Opponent ELO
1542.9
55.03
Current ELO Difference
-55.03
0.58
Expected score
0.42
37
History Matches
39
0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
54.46
Overperformance
49.72
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
2.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
39
1.70
PPG
1.41
48.6%
Win rate
41.0%
24.3%
Draw rate
17.9%
27.0%
Loss rate
41.0%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
64.1%
56.8%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
17
2.00
PPG
1.59
57.1%
Win rate
52.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
47.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
52.4%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
21
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
1.79
94.6%
Scoring rate
87.2%
64.9%
BTTS rate
64.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.82
95.2%
Scoring rate
82.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
52.9%
37
History Matches
39
2.00
Goals Mean
1.79
1.43
Goals Std
1.36
94.6%
Scored 1+ rate
87.2%
48.6%
Scored 2+ rate
46.2%
29.7%
Scored 3+ rate
28.2%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.43
Goals against per game
1.67
67.6%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.41
57.1%
Conceding rate
70.6%
37
History Matches
39
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.24
Conceded Std
1.42
45.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.6%
27.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.8%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
5.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
5.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
39
0.95
Result entropy
0.95
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.17
4.61
Stability score
5.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
39
17
Lead Matches
10
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.90
10
Trailing Matches
18
30.0%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
201.2
Rest days
202.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
12
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
21
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.66
Portability PPG Std
0.43
1.41
Portability PPG Range
1.11
43.02
Portability Score
53.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO55.03
PPG0.29
GF0.21
GA-0.23
PPG0.41
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.21
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate7.4%
Scored 2+ rate2.5%
Scored 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Conceded 2+ rate2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-0.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.71
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate2.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.30
Portability Score-10.77
Rest days-0.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO55.03
Current Opponent ELO-55.03
Current ELO Difference110.1
Expected score0.16
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pietà Hotspurs

W
St. Andrews0–3Pietà Hotspurs31 Oct · away
Pick: Pietà Hotspurs 42% · hit
W
Pietà Hotspurs2–0Vittoriosa Stars25 Oct · home
Pick: Pietà Hotspurs 61% · hit
W
Melita0–2Pietà Hotspurs17 Oct · away
Pick: Melita 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Zurrieq

L
Zurrieq0–3Attard31 Oct · home
Pick: Zurrieq 69% · missed
W
Mgarr United0–1Zurrieq25 Oct · away
Pick: Zurrieq 44% · hit
W
Zurrieq1–0Gudja United17 Oct · home
Pick: Zurrieq 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pietà Hotspurs and Zurrieq meet in Challenge League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Pietà Hotspurs win 46.3%, draw 18.2%, Zurrieq win 35.5%. The pick is Pietà Hotspurs win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.3%. Both teams to score: 63.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.