ScoreProb
Challenge League Malta Round 7 2026

Zebbug Rangers vs St. Andrews

Zebbug Rangers Home · Elo 1,421
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
St. Andrews Away · Elo 1,482
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: St. Andrews win
Zebbug Rangers win
25.8%
Draw
25.4%
St. Andrews winPick
48.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%

How much we know

Zebbug Rangers history33 matches
St. Andrews history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why St. Andrews are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • St. Andrews are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,482 against 1,421. On rating alone St. Andrews would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • St. Andrews score more

    1.06 goals a game over 33 matches for Zebbug Rangers, against 1.34 over 35 for St. Andrews.

  • St. Andrews concede fewer

    Zebbug Rangers concede 2.30 a game, St. Andrews 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Zebbug Rangers matches, against 57% for St. Andrews. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 27 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zebbug Rangers
St. Andrews@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1420.9
ELO
1482.3
33
ELO · Matches
35
1420.9
Current Team ELO
1482.3
1482.3
Current Opponent ELO
1420.9
-61.44
Current ELO Difference
61.44
0.41
Expected score
0.59
33
History Matches
35
-0.12
Residual Mean
-0.02
42.52
Overperformance
48.55
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.70
1.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
35
0.79
PPG
1.43
18.2%
Win rate
42.9%
24.2%
Draw rate
14.3%
57.6%
Loss rate
42.9%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
17
0.50
PPG
1.76
12.5%
Win rate
52.9%
12.5%
Draw rate
17.6%
75.0%
Loss rate
29.4%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
16
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.34
66.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.6%
BTTS rate
48.6%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.53
50.0%
Scoring rate
76.5%
43.8%
BTTS rate
47.1%
33
History Matches
35
1.06
Goals Mean
1.34
1.18
Goals Std
1.24
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
24.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
0.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.30
Goals against per game
1.51
87.9%
Conceding rate
74.3%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.06
93.8%
Conceding rate
64.7%
33
History Matches
35
2.30
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.57
Conceded Std
1.25
57.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
48.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.9%
2.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
6.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
12.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
35
0.88
Result entropy
0.91
2.16
Goal Difference Std
1.87
11.58
Stability score
8.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
35
4
Lead Matches
12
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.83
17
Trailing Matches
11
11.8%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
1.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
202.1
Rest days
132.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
15
Normal Rest History Matches
13
0.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
14
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.77
73.88
Portability Score
56.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-61.44
PPG-0.64
GF-0.28
GA0.79
PPG-1.26
PPG1.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate26.5%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.79
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate25.6%
Venue Conceded Mean1.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score2.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.49
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate2.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.42
Portability Score17.47
Rest days69.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-61.44
Current Opponent ELO61.44
Current ELO Difference-122.9
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-6.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.48

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zebbug Rangers

D
Vittoriosa Stars1–1Zebbug Rangers30 Oct · away
Pick: Vittoriosa Stars 36% · missed
L
Zebbug Rangers1–2Melita23 Oct · home
Pick: Melita 51% · hit
L
Tarxien Rainbows2–1Zebbug Rangers18 Oct · away
Pick: Tarxien Rainbows 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

St. Andrews

L
St. Andrews0–3Pietà Hotspurs31 Oct · home
Pick: Pietà Hotspurs 42% · hit
W
Attard0–1St. Andrews23 Oct · away
Pick: Attard 37% · missed
L
St. Andrews0–2Mgarr United17 Oct · home
Pick: St. Andrews 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zebbug Rangers and St. Andrews meet in Challenge League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Zebbug Rangers win 25.8%, draw 25.4%, St. Andrews win 48.8%. The pick is St. Andrews win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.