Platges Calvià vs Santanyí
Match result probability Model pick: Platges Calvià win
Platges Calvià winPick
50.9%
Draw
24.9%
Santanyí win
24.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.6%
No47.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%
How much we know
Platges Calvià history49 matches
Santanyí history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Platges Calvià
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 16:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Platges Calvià are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Platges Calvià are rated 31 Elo points higher
Elo 1,481 against 1,450. On rating alone Platges Calvià would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Platges Calvià score more
1.39 goals a game over 49 matches for Platges Calvià, against 1.15 over 46 for Santanyí.
-
Platges Calvià concede fewer
Platges Calvià concede 1.33 a game, Santanyí 1.65.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
51% of Platges Calvià matches, against 50% for Santanyí. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Santanyí@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1481.5
ELO
1450.1
49
ELO · Matches
46
1481.5
Current Team ELO
1450.1
1450.1
Current Opponent ELO
1481.5
31.31
Current ELO Difference
-31.31
0.54
Expected score
0.46
49
History Matches
46
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
48.43
Overperformance
46.55
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
46
1.43
PPG
1.11
40.8%
Win rate
28.3%
20.4%
Draw rate
26.1%
38.8%
Loss rate
45.7%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.3%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
22
1.63
PPG
0.59
45.8%
Win rate
9.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
31.8%
29.2%
Loss rate
59.1%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.39
Goals for per game
1.15
65.3%
Scoring rate
71.7%
49.0%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.73
70.8%
Scoring rate
63.6%
54.2%
BTTS rate
59.1%
49
History Matches
46
1.39
Goals Mean
1.15
1.31
Goals Std
1.02
65.3%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
26.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.7%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.73
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.65
75.5%
Conceding rate
73.9%
1.13
Goals against per game
2.05
75.0%
Conceding rate
81.8%
49
History Matches
46
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.22
Conceded Std
1.73
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.3%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.9%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
2.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
46
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.71
Goal Difference Std
2.18
3.75
Stability score
3.00
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
45
16
Lead Matches
7
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.67
17
Trailing Matches
19
23.5%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
188.3
Rest days
188.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.03
0.48
Portability PPG Range
0.06
67.69
Portability Score
94.13
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.31
PPG0.32
GF0.24
GA-0.33
PPG1.03
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate10.4%
Scored 3+ rate17.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.52
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.48
Stability score0.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate24.1%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate6.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.41
Portability Score-26.44
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO31.31
Current Opponent ELO-31.31
Current ELO Difference62.61
Expected score0.09
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Platges Calvià
W
Arenal0–2Platges Calvià7 Nov · away
Pick: Arenal 35% · missed W
Platges Calvià5–1Inter Ibiza31 Oct · home
Pick: Platges Calvià 54% · hit W
Formentera2–3Platges Calvià24 Oct · away
Pick: Formentera 54% · missed W
Platges Calvià1–0Andratx17 Oct · home
Pick: Platges Calvià 44% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Santanyí
L
Santanyí1–2Binissalem6 Nov · home
Pick: Binissalem 37% · hit D
Manacor1–1Santanyí31 Oct · away
Pick: Manacor 63% · missed D
Santanyí0–0Ibiza Islas Pitiusas24 Oct · home
Pick: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 40% · missed W
Porreres0–1Santanyí4 Oct · away
Pick: Porreres 55% · missed L
Andratx2–1Santanyí30 Aug · away
Pick: Andratx 50% · hit About this match
Platges Calvià and Santanyí meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Platges Calvià win 50.9%, draw 24.9%, Santanyí win 24.2%. The pick is Platges Calvià win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.