ScoreProb
Druha Liga Ukraine Round 14 2026

Podillya Khmelnytskyi vs Dnister Zalishchyky

Podillya Khmelnytskyi Home · Elo 1,421
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dnister Zalishchyky Away · Elo 1,489
Sport Complex Podillia, Khmelnytskyi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Podillya Khmelnytskyi win
Podillya Khmelnytskyi winPick
47.9%
Draw
22.4%
Dnister Zalishchyky win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%

How much we know

Podillya Khmelnytskyi history46 matches
Dnister Zalishchyky history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Podillya Khmelnytskyi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dnister Zalishchyky are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,489 against 1,421. On rating alone Dnister Zalishchyky would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Dnister Zalishchyky score far more

    0.91 goals a game over 46 matches for Podillya Khmelnytskyi, against 1.50 over 4 for Dnister Zalishchyky.

  • Podillya Khmelnytskyi concede fewer

    Podillya Khmelnytskyi concede 1.37 a game, Dnister Zalishchyky 2.00.

  • Dnister Zalishchyky games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Podillya Khmelnytskyi matches, against 75% for Dnister Zalishchyky. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Dnister Zalishchyky
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1420.5
ELO
1489.1
46
ELO · Matches
4
1420.5
Current Team ELO
1489.1
1489.1
Current Opponent ELO
1420.5
-68.53
Current ELO Difference
68.53
0.40
Expected score
0.60
46
History Matches
4
-0.09
Residual Mean
-0.13
44.01
Overperformance
47.75
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
25.0%
10
Matches
4
0.60
PPG
1.00
0.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
10.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.95
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
4
1.02
PPG
1.00
23.9%
Win rate
25.0%
30.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
45.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
39.1%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
2
0.83
PPG
0.50
17.4%
Win rate
0.0%
30.4%
Draw rate
50.0%
52.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
23
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.91
Goals for per game
1.50
67.4%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.87
Goals for per game
1.50
65.2%
Scoring rate
50.0%
56.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
46
History Matches
4
0.91
Goals Mean
1.50
0.80
Goals Std
1.50
67.4%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
19.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
4.3%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
0.87
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
2.00
71.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.48
Goals against per game
2.00
78.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
4
1.37
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.24
Conceded Std
1.00
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
4
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.80
3.32
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
3
10
Lead Matches
0
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.83
Lead Points Retention
—
13
Trailing Matches
2
7.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.99
Rest days
76.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
2
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
18
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
1.50
PPG
1.33
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
2
Current Competition Matches
3
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
5
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.46
Portability PPG Std
—
0.93
Portability PPG Range
—
51.89
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-68.53
PPG0.02
GF-0.59
GA-0.63
PPG0.17
PPG0.33
PPG0.00
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches42
Clean-sheet rate28.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate21.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches42
Goals Mean-0.59
Goals Std-0.70
Scored 1+ rate17.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.46
Venue Goals Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.72
History Matches42
Conceded Mean-0.63
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches42
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-2.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches43
Lead Matches10
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.42
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches43
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches25
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match1.06
Current Team ELO-68.53
Current Opponent ELO68.53
Current ELO Difference-137.1
Expected score-0.19
History Matches42
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance-3.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Podillya Khmelnytskyi

W
Dinaz Vyshhorod0–3Podillya Khmelnytskyi1 Nov · away
Pick: Podillya Khmelnytskyi 48% · hit
L
Nyva Vinnytsya2–1Podillya Khmelnytskyi17 Oct · away
Pick: Nyva Vinnytsya 45% · hit
D
Podillya Khmelnytskyi1–1Dinaz Vyshhorod29 Aug · home
Pick: Podillya Khmelnytskyi 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dnister Zalishchyky

L
Dnister Zalishchyky0–1Ruh Lviv1 Nov · home
Pick: Ruh Lviv 39% · hit
W
Skala 1911 Stryi0–2Dnister Zalishchyky24 Oct · away
Pick: Skala 1911 Stryi 48% · missed
D
Dnister Zalishchyky1–1Nyva Ternopil II17 Oct · home
Pick: Dnister Zalishchyky 50% · missed
W
Ruh Lviv1–2Dnister Zalishchyky29 Aug · away
Pick: Ruh Lviv 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Podillya Khmelnytskyi and Dnister Zalishchyky meet in Druha Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:45 UTC. The match is played at Sport Complex Podillia, Khmelnytskyi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Podillya Khmelnytskyi win 47.9%, draw 22.4%, Dnister Zalishchyky win 29.6%. The pick is Podillya Khmelnytskyi win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.