ScoreProb
Premier League Ukraine Round 12 2026

Polessya vs Veres Rivne

Polessya Home · Elo 1,603
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Veres Rivne Away · Elo 1,452
Tsentralnyi Stadion, Zhytomyr Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:22 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Polessya win
Polessya winPick
59.1%
Draw
22.3%
Veres Rivne win
18.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%

How much we know

Polessya history76 matches
Veres Rivne history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 6 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:22 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Polessya are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Polessya are rated 151 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,452. On rating alone Polessya would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Polessya score far more

    1.72 goals a game over 76 matches for Polessya, against 1.10 over 70 for Veres Rivne.

  • Polessya concede fewer

    Polessya concede 1.03 a game, Veres Rivne 1.39.

  • Polessya games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Polessya matches, against 43% for Veres Rivne. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Polessya
Veres Rivne
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1603.5
ELO
1452.1
76
ELO · Matches
70
1603.5
Current Team ELO
1452.1
1452.1
Current Opponent ELO
1603.5
151.4
Current ELO Difference
-151.4
0.71
Expected score
0.29
76
History Matches
70
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
55.06
Overperformance
47.20
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
70
1.70
PPG
1.10
48.7%
Win rate
27.1%
23.7%
Draw rate
28.6%
27.6%
Loss rate
44.3%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
53.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
36
1.68
PPG
1.00
45.9%
Win rate
25.0%
29.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
24.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
37
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.10
77.6%
Scoring rate
58.6%
47.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.76
Goals for per game
0.92
75.7%
Scoring rate
47.2%
51.4%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
76
History Matches
70
1.72
Goals Mean
1.10
1.43
Goals Std
1.19
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
58.6%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.9%
26.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.39
56.6%
Conceding rate
72.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.42
59.5%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
76
History Matches
70
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.18
Conceded Std
1.22
27.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.6%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
52.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
52.8%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
70
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.72
4.70
Stability score
2.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
66
33
Lead Matches
11
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.76
15
Trailing Matches
25
26.7%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.42
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.94
Rest days
76.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.64
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.20
41
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.79
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
0.33
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
9
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.17
58.63
Portability Score
55.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO151.4
PPG0.60
GF0.62
GA-0.36
PPG1.67
PPG0.68
PPG0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.62
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate19.1%
Scored 2+ rate17.1%
Scored 3+ rate12.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.57
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score2.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.36
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches22
Lead Win Rate18.2%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score2.83
Rest days4.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.96
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO151.4
Current Opponent ELO-151.4
Current ELO Difference302.7
Expected score0.41
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Polessya

W
Polessya3–1Dynamo Kyiv18 Oct · home
Pick: Dynamo Kyiv 40% · missed
W
Shakhtar Donetsk0–2Polessya29 Aug · away
Pick: Shakhtar Donetsk 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Veres Rivne

W
Livyi Bereh0–1Veres Rivne27 Oct · away
Pick: Livyi Bereh 46% · missed
L
Obolon'-Brovar2–0Veres Rivne16 Oct · away
Pick: Veres Rivne 39% · missed
W
LNZ Cherkasy0–1Veres Rivne30 Aug · away
Pick: LNZ Cherkasy 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Polessya and Veres Rivne meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Zhytomyr. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:22 UTC: Polessya win 59.1%, draw 22.3%, Veres Rivne win 18.6%. The pick is Polessya win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.