ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 17 2026

Poole Town vs Uxbridge

Poole Town Home · Elo 1,578
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Uxbridge Away · Elo 1,557
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Uxbridge win
Poole Town win
35.5%
Draw
26.2%
Uxbridge winPick
38.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.4%
No42.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.3%
Under 2.541.7%

How much we know

Poole Town history72 matches
Uxbridge history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Uxbridge are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,578 against 1,557. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Uxbridge score more

    1.71 goals a game over 72 matches for Poole Town, against 1.94 over 63 for Uxbridge.

  • Poole Town concede fewer

    Poole Town concede 1.22 a game, Uxbridge 1.46.

  • Uxbridge games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Poole Town matches, against 67% for Uxbridge. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Poole Town
Uxbridge
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.8
ELO
1556.5
72
ELO · Matches
63
1577.8
Current Team ELO
1556.5
1556.5
Current Opponent ELO
1577.8
21.31
Current ELO Difference
-21.31
0.53
Expected score
0.47
72
History Matches
63
0.05
Residual Mean
0.05
53.92
Overperformance
53.65
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
63
1.64
PPG
1.60
45.8%
Win rate
44.4%
26.4%
Draw rate
27.0%
27.8%
Loss rate
28.6%
76.4%
Over 1.5 rate
87.3%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
39.7%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
30
1.74
PPG
1.47
51.4%
Win rate
36.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
36.7%
28.6%
Loss rate
26.7%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
37.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
35
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.94
79.2%
Scoring rate
84.1%
56.9%
BTTS rate
63.5%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.57
74.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
63
1.71
Goals Mean
1.94
1.42
Goals Std
1.61
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
52.8%
Scored 2+ rate
58.7%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
27.0%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.46
75.0%
Conceding rate
74.6%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.37
65.7%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
63
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.04
Conceded Std
1.19
31.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.8%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
63
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.70
Goal Difference Std
2.06
3.06
Stability score
2.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
62
25
Lead Matches
29
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.4%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.78
16
Trailing Matches
15
37.5%
Non-loss rate
46.7%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
62
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
5
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.50
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.52
Portability PPG Range
1.10
70.29
Portability Score
52.24
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO21.31
PPG0.04
GF-0.23
GA-0.24
PPG-1.00
PPG0.28
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate5.7%
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.20
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate11.6%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score18.05
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.27
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.13
Current Team ELO21.31
Current Opponent ELO-21.31
Current ELO Difference42.62
Expected score0.06
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Poole Town

W
Poole Town3–0Hanwell Town3 Nov · home
Pick: Poole Town 44% · hit
L
Bath City1–0Poole Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Bath City 48% · hit
D
Poole Town2–2Chertsey Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Chertsey Town 43% · missed
L
Didcot Town2–1Poole Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Poole Town 51% · missed
W
Chippenham Town1–4Poole Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Poole Town 40% · hit

Uxbridge

L
Plymouth Parkway3–1Uxbridge3 Nov · away
Pick: Plymouth Parkway 48% · hit
W
Uxbridge2–0Yate Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Uxbridge 51% · hit
W
Basingstoke Town0–2Uxbridge27 Oct · away
Pick: Uxbridge 42% · hit
W
Egham Town0–3Uxbridge24 Oct · away
Pick: Uxbridge 52% · hit
W
Uxbridge3–0Malvern Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Uxbridge 62% · hit

About this match

Poole Town and Uxbridge meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Poole Town win 35.5%, draw 26.2%, Uxbridge win 38.3%. The pick is Uxbridge win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.3%. Both teams to score: 57.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.