ScoreProb
1st League - RS Bosnia & Herzegovina RS - 15 2026

Potkozarje vs Kozara Gradiška

Potkozarje Home · Elo 1,508
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kozara Gradiška Away · Elo 1,513
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Potkozarje win
Potkozarje winPick
39.8%
Draw
37.2%
Kozara Gradiška win
23.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.1%
No53.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.0%
Under 2.554.0%

How much we know

Potkozarje history1 match
Kozara Gradiška history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 8 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Potkozarje are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,508 against 1,513. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Potkozarje score far more

    2.00 goals a game over 1 matches for Potkozarje, against 1.10 over 48 for Kozara Gradiška.

  • Potkozarje concede fewer

    Potkozarje concede 0.00 a game, Kozara Gradiška 1.44.

  • Kozara Gradiška games more often go over 2.5 goals

    0% of Potkozarje matches, against 44% for Kozara Gradiška. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Potkozarje
Kozara Gradiška
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.6
ELO
1513.1
1
ELO · Matches
48
1507.6
Current Team ELO
1513.1
1513.1
Current Opponent ELO
1507.6
-5.43
Current ELO Difference
5.43
0.49
Expected score
0.51
1
History Matches
48
0.47
Residual Mean
0.01
52.25
Overperformance
50.49
0.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
1
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.00
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.00
Goals against per game
1.10
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
1
Matches
48
3.00
PPG
1.31
100.0%
Win rate
37.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
0.0%
Loss rate
43.8%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.6%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
26
3.00
PPG
0.85
100.0%
Win rate
23.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
15.4%
0.0%
Loss rate
61.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
26.9%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
1
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
1.10
100.0%
Scoring rate
64.6%
0.0%
BTTS rate
39.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.62
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
30.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1
History Matches
48
2.00
Goals Mean
1.10
—
Goals Std
1.10
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
64.6%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
29.2%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.00
Goals against per game
1.44
0.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.62
0.0%
Conceding rate
76.9%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
1
History Matches
48
0.00
Conceded Mean
1.44
—
Conceded Std
1.31
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.7%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.8%
0.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
1
History Matches
48
0.00
Result entropy
0.95
—
Goal Difference Std
1.76
100.0
Stability score
5.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
0
Eligible Matches
47
0
Lead Matches
11
—
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.94
0
Trailing Matches
16
—
Non-loss rate
25.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
6
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
0
Normal Rest History Matches
27
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
0
Long Rest History Matches
14
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
1
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.08
—
Portability PPG Range
0.16
—
Portability Score
86.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
1
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreGoals StdRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-5.43
PPG1.69
GF0.90
GA-1.44
PPG0.00
PPG2.15
PPG1.60
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-47
Clean-sheet rate70.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches-25
Clean-sheet rate76.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.50
History Matches-47
Goals Mean0.90
Scored 1+ rate35.4%
Scored 2+ rate70.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean1.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
History Matches-47
Conceded Mean-1.44
Clean-sheet rate70.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.42
Conceded 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Conceded Mean-1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
History Matches-47
Result entropy-0.95
Stability score94.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.96
Eligible Matches-47
Lead Matches-11
Trailing Matches-16
Halftime Coverage Matches-47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest History Matches-27
Long Rest History Matches-14
Current Team ELO-5.43
Current Opponent ELO5.43
Current ELO Difference-10.86
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-47
Residual Mean0.47
Overperformance1.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Potkozarje

L
Omarska3–1Potkozarje1 Nov · away
Pick: Omarska 44% · hit
L
Sutjeska Foča2–1Potkozarje17 Oct · away
Pick: Sutjeska Foča 54% · hit
L
Kozara Gradiška1–0Potkozarje29 Aug · away
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kozara Gradiška

W
Kozara Gradiška4–0Famos Vojkovići31 Oct · home
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 51% · hit
W
Kozara Gradiška2–0Zvijezda 0924 Oct · home
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 55% · hit
L
Omarska1–0Kozara Gradiška18 Oct · away
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 43% · missed
W
Kozara Gradiška1–0Potkozarje29 Aug · home
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Potkozarje and Kozara Gradiška meet in 1st League - RS on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Potkozarje win 39.8%, draw 37.2%, Kozara Gradiška win 23.0%. The pick is Potkozarje win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.0%. Both teams to score: 46.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.