ScoreProb
3. Liga Germany Round 13 2026

Preußen Münster vs MSV Duisburg

Preußen Münster Home · Elo 1,465
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
MSV Duisburg Away · Elo 1,620
Preussenstadion, Munster Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: MSV Duisburg win
Preußen Münster win
25.4%
Draw
23.8%
MSV Duisburg winPick
50.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%

How much we know

Preußen Münster history62 matches
MSV Duisburg history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why MSV Duisburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • MSV Duisburg are rated 155 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,620 against 1,465. On rating alone MSV Duisburg would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • MSV Duisburg score far more

    1.26 goals a game over 62 matches for Preußen Münster, against 2.02 over 63 for MSV Duisburg.

  • MSV Duisburg concede fewer

    Preußen Münster concede 1.50 a game, MSV Duisburg 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Preußen Münster matches, against 62% for MSV Duisburg. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Preußen Münster
MSV Duisburg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.6
ELO
1619.9
62
ELO · Matches
63
1464.6
Current Team ELO
1619.9
1619.9
Current Opponent ELO
1464.6
-155.3
Current ELO Difference
155.3
0.29
Expected score
0.71
62
History Matches
63
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
48.26
Overperformance
56.40
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
63
1.10
PPG
1.95
25.8%
Win rate
57.1%
32.3%
Draw rate
23.8%
41.9%
Loss rate
19.0%
79.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
34
1.09
PPG
1.68
21.9%
Win rate
47.1%
43.8%
Draw rate
26.5%
34.4%
Loss rate
26.5%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
67.6%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
32
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
2.02
75.8%
Scoring rate
81.0%
64.5%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.85
84.4%
Scoring rate
73.5%
75.0%
BTTS rate
44.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
63
1.26
Goals Mean
2.02
1.09
Goals Std
1.55
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
33.9%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
9.7%
Scored 3+ rate
36.5%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.14
80.6%
Conceding rate
61.9%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.21
81.3%
Conceding rate
52.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
63
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.21
Conceded Std
1.31
41.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
17.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
38.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
63
0.98
Result entropy
0.89
1.70
Goal Difference Std
2.07
1.79
Stability score
11.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
63
12
Lead Matches
26
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
96.2%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.97
21
Trailing Matches
14
38.1%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.19
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.98
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
34
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
27
Long Rest History Matches
30
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.50
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.48
1.52
Portability PPG Range
1.17
45.94
Portability Score
51.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-155.3
PPG-0.86
GF-0.76
GA0.36
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.58
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.76
Goals Std-0.46
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Conceded 2+ rate13.4%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-9.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.28
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate9.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-5.08
Rest days0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.06
Current Team ELO-155.3
Current Opponent ELO155.3
Current ELO Difference-310.6
Expected score-0.42
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Preußen Münster

L
Alemannia Aachen2–1Preußen Münster1 Nov · away
Pick: Alemannia Aachen 48% · hit
W
Preußen Münster1–0Fortuna Köln25 Oct · home
Pick: Preußen Münster 51% · hit
L
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3–2Preußen Münster17 Oct · away
Pick: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 42% · hit
L
Preußen Münster1–2Fortuna Düsseldorf14 Oct · home
Pick: Preußen Münster 49% · missed
L
FC Viktoria Köln4–1Preußen Münster30 Aug · away
Pick: FC Viktoria Köln 42% · hit

MSV Duisburg

D
MSV Duisburg3–3Stuttgart II31 Oct · home
Pick: MSV Duisburg 68% · missed
L
FC Ingolstadt 042–1MSV Duisburg24 Oct · away
Pick: MSV Duisburg 46% · missed
D
MSV Duisburg1–1FC Viktoria Köln18 Oct · home
Pick: MSV Duisburg 55% · missed
W
FC Saarbrücken2–4MSV Duisburg13 Oct · away
Pick: FC Saarbrücken 38% · missed
W
MSV Duisburg3–0Würzburger Kickers29 Aug · home
Pick: MSV Duisburg 51% · hit

About this match

Preußen Münster and MSV Duisburg meet in 3. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Preussenstadion, Munster. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Preußen Münster win 25.4%, draw 23.8%, MSV Duisburg win 50.8%. The pick is MSV Duisburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.