ScoreProb
3. Liga Germany Round 13 2026

Hansa Rostock vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Hansa Rostock Home · Elo 1,586
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Away · Elo 1,636
Ostseestadion, Rostock Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hansa Rostock win
Hansa Rostock winPick
53.5%
Draw
18.1%
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win
28.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.6%
Under 2.530.4%

How much we know

Hansa Rostock history72 matches
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Hansa Rostock are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,636 against 1,586. On rating alone SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach score more

    2.00 goals a game over 72 matches for Hansa Rostock, against 2.71 over 66 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.

  • Defences are close

    Hansa Rostock concede 1.36 a game, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1.42.

  • SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Hansa Rostock matches, against 77% for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hansa Rostock
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1586.3
ELO
1635.9
72
ELO · Matches
66
1586.3
Current Team ELO
1635.9
1635.9
Current Opponent ELO
1586.3
-49.63
Current ELO Difference
49.63
0.43
Expected score
0.57
72
History Matches
66
0.06
Residual Mean
0.11
54.77
Overperformance
58.10
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.10
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.84
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.53
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
66
1.78
PPG
2.05
51.4%
Win rate
62.1%
23.6%
Draw rate
18.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
19.7%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
95.5%
68.1%
Over 2.5 rate
77.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
62.1%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
31
1.78
PPG
2.23
51.4%
Win rate
67.7%
24.3%
Draw rate
19.4%
24.3%
Loss rate
12.9%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
96.8%
73.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.2%
59.5%
Over 3.5 rate
58.1%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
37
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.00
Goals for per game
2.71
79.2%
Scoring rate
89.4%
51.4%
BTTS rate
68.2%
2.16
Goals for per game
2.84
86.5%
Scoring rate
87.1%
62.2%
BTTS rate
71.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
72
History Matches
66
2.00
Goals Mean
2.71
1.64
Goals Std
2.00
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
89.4%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
80.3%
34.7%
Scored 3+ rate
42.4%
2.16
Venue Goals Mean
2.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.42
65.3%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.51
Goals against per game
1.23
73.0%
Conceding rate
80.6%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
66
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.34
Conceded Std
1.24
40.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.9%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.51
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.6%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.6%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
66
0.94
Result entropy
0.84
2.34
Goal Difference Std
2.55
6.29
Stability score
15.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
65
26
Lead Matches
35
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
88.6%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.90
15
Trailing Matches
15
26.7%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
1.22
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.01
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.43
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.76
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.14
34
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.84
25
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.38
Portability PPG Range
0.73
46.91
Portability Score
60.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-49.63
PPG-0.27
GF-0.71
GA-0.06
PPG0.50
PPG-0.44
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.6%
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.71
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.70
History Matches6
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-9.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate3.7%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.65
Portability Score-13.74
Rest days0.89
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Current Team ELO-49.63
Current Opponent ELO49.63
Current ELO Difference-99.25
Expected score-0.14
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hansa Rostock

L
SSV Jahn Regensburg2–1Hansa Rostock31 Oct · away
Pick: SSV Jahn Regensburg 44% · hit
D
Hansa Rostock1–1Fortuna Düsseldorf24 Oct · home
Pick: Hansa Rostock 65% · missed
L
Alemannia Aachen2–0Hansa Rostock17 Oct · away
Pick: Alemannia Aachen 51% · hit
L
Hansa Rostock0–2SV Meppen13 Oct · home
Pick: Hansa Rostock 49% · missed
W
FC Saarbrücken2–4Hansa Rostock30 Aug · away
Pick: FC Saarbrücken 51% · missed

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

L
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach0–1Rot-Weiß Essen1 Nov · home
Pick: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 49% · missed
L
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2–4FC Augsburg27 Oct · home
Pick: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 50% · missed
L
SV Wehen7–1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach24 Oct · away
Pick: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 45% · missed
W
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach3–2Preußen Münster17 Oct · home
Pick: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 42% · hit
D
FC Viktoria Köln2–2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach14 Oct · away
Pick: FC Viktoria Köln 48% · missed

About this match

Hansa Rostock and SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach meet in 3. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Ostseestadion, Rostock. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hansa Rostock win 53.5%, draw 18.1%, SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach win 28.4%. The pick is Hansa Rostock win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.6%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.