ScoreProb
3. Liga Germany Round 13 2026

SV Wehen vs Havelse

SV Wehen Home · Elo 1,492
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Havelse Away · Elo 1,457
BRITA-Arena, Wiesbaden Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SV Wehen win
SV Wehen winPick
42.2%
Draw
22.9%
Havelse win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.0%
No36.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.0%
Under 2.538.0%

How much we know

SV Wehen history71 matches
Havelse history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why SV Wehen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SV Wehen are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,492 against 1,457. On rating alone SV Wehen would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.35 goals a game over 71 matches for SV Wehen, against 1.48 over 62 for Havelse.

  • SV Wehen concede fewer

    SV Wehen concede 1.45 a game, Havelse 1.85.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of SV Wehen matches, against 61% for Havelse. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SV Wehen
Havelse
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.1
ELO
1457.3
71
ELO · Matches
62
1492.1
Current Team ELO
1457.3
1457.3
Current Opponent ELO
1492.1
34.82
Current ELO Difference
-34.82
0.55
Expected score
0.45
71
History Matches
62
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.04
50.25
Overperformance
47.08
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.40
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
2.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.80
0.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
62
1.34
PPG
1.16
39.4%
Win rate
30.6%
15.5%
Draw rate
24.2%
45.1%
Loss rate
45.2%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.7%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
33
1.67
PPG
0.82
51.3%
Win rate
18.2%
12.8%
Draw rate
27.3%
35.9%
Loss rate
54.5%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
84.8%
59.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
48.5%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
39
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.48
71.8%
Scoring rate
77.4%
47.9%
BTTS rate
71.0%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.33
79.5%
Scoring rate
75.8%
53.8%
BTTS rate
75.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
62
1.35
Goals Mean
1.48
1.21
Goals Std
1.17
71.8%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
21.0%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.85
70.4%
Conceding rate
87.1%
1.36
Goals against per game
2.03
71.8%
Conceding rate
90.9%
3.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
62
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.85
1.24
Conceded Std
1.44
46.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.8%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
2.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
62
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.91
7.61
Stability score
3.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
60
26
Lead Matches
15
73.1%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.73
22
Trailing Matches
23
13.6%
Non-loss rate
30.4%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.10
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.84
27
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.51
Portability PPG Range
0.93
73.11
Portability Score
54.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO34.82
PPG0.18
GF-0.13
GA-0.40
PPG0.00
PPG0.85
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate19.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches9
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score4.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate6.4%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.41
Portability Score18.69
Rest days-6.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO34.82
Current Opponent ELO-34.82
Current ELO Difference69.64
Expected score0.10
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SV Wehen

W
Verl1–4SV Wehen31 Oct · away
Pick: Verl 46% · missed
W
SV Wehen7–1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach24 Oct · home
Pick: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 45% · missed
D
SSV Jahn Regensburg0–0SV Wehen17 Oct · away
Pick: SSV Jahn Regensburg 57% · missed
W
SV Wehen3–0Alemannia Aachen14 Oct · home
Pick: Alemannia Aachen 54% · missed
D
SV Wehen0–0Rot-Weiß Essen29 Aug · home
Pick: Rot-Weiß Essen 42% · missed

Havelse

D
Havelse1–1FC Ingolstadt 0431 Oct · home
Pick: FC Ingolstadt 04 45% · missed
W
Havelse3–2FC Saarbrücken25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Saarbrücken 51% · missed
D
SV Meppen1–1Havelse18 Oct · away
Pick: SV Meppen 62% · missed
D
Havelse2–2Würzburger Kickers13 Oct · home
Pick: Würzburger Kickers 70% · missed
W
Havelse3–2Waldhof Mannheim30 Aug · home
Pick: Waldhof Mannheim 49% · missed

About this match

SV Wehen and Havelse meet in 3. Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at BRITA-Arena, Wiesbaden. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: SV Wehen win 42.2%, draw 22.9%, Havelse win 34.9%. The pick is SV Wehen win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.0%. Both teams to score: 64.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.