ScoreProb
NB III - Southwest Hungary Southwest - 15 2026

PTE-PEAC vs MTK Budapest II

PTE-PEAC Home · Elo 1,458
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
MTK Budapest II Away · Elo 1,540
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: MTK Budapest II win
PTE-PEAC win
35.6%
Draw
21.2%
MTK Budapest II winPick
43.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.4%
Under 2.538.6%

How much we know

PTE-PEAC history51 matches
MTK Budapest II history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why MTK Budapest II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • MTK Budapest II are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,458. On rating alone MTK Budapest II would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • MTK Budapest II score far more

    1.24 goals a game over 51 matches for PTE-PEAC, against 2.20 over 46 for MTK Budapest II.

  • MTK Budapest II concede fewer

    PTE-PEAC concede 1.75 a game, MTK Budapest II 1.41.

  • MTK Budapest II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of PTE-PEAC matches, against 70% for MTK Budapest II. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
PTE-PEAC
MTK Budapest II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1458.4
ELO
1540.5
51
ELO · Matches
46
1458.4
Current Team ELO
1540.5
1540.5
Current Opponent ELO
1458.4
-82.02
Current ELO Difference
82.02
0.38
Expected score
0.62
51
History Matches
46
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
46.93
Overperformance
53.31
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
0.90
Goals for per game
2.30
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.41
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
46
0.98
PPG
1.61
25.5%
Win rate
50.0%
21.6%
Draw rate
10.9%
52.9%
Loss rate
39.1%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
69.6%
39.2%
Over 3.5 rate
41.3%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
22
1.29
PPG
0.82
33.3%
Win rate
22.7%
29.2%
Draw rate
13.6%
37.5%
Loss rate
63.6%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
2.20
74.5%
Scoring rate
78.3%
64.7%
BTTS rate
47.8%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.27
75.0%
Scoring rate
63.6%
58.3%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.25
Goals for per game
3.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
51
History Matches
46
1.24
Goals Mean
2.20
1.15
Goals Std
2.31
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.3%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
9.8%
Scored 3+ rate
30.4%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
1.41
84.3%
Conceding rate
67.4%
1.63
Goals against per game
2.09
75.0%
Conceding rate
86.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
51
History Matches
46
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.27
Conceded Std
1.47
51.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.0%
29.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.6%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
2.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
15.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
15.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
46
0.92
Result entropy
0.87
1.65
Goal Difference Std
3.14
7.52
Stability score
13.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
45
7
Lead Matches
17
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.86
15
Trailing Matches
13
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
83.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.84
14
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
1.50
75.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.67
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.25
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.10
1.71
Portability PPG Range
0.23
41.19
Portability Score
83.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-82.02
PPG-0.63
GF-0.96
GA0.33
PPG0.75
PPG0.47
PPG0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.96
Goals Std-1.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.21
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.71
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches5
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-1.49
Stability score-5.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.59
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate3.4%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.61
Portability PPG Range1.48
Portability Score-42.18
Rest days-5.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.96
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO-82.02
Current Opponent ELO82.02
Current ELO Difference-164.0
Expected score-0.23
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

PTE-PEAC

L
Kaposvar2–0PTE-PEAC31 Oct · away
Pick: Kaposvar 75% · hit
L
PTE-PEAC0–3Iváncsa24 Oct · home
Pick: Iváncsa 49% · hit
L
Érdi VSE3–1PTE-PEAC17 Oct · away
Pick: Érdi VSE 53% · hit
W
PTE-PEAC6–1Budaörs26 Aug · home
Pick: PTE-PEAC 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

MTK Budapest II

W
MTK Budapest II2–1Sárbogárd31 Oct · home
Pick: MTK Budapest II 88% · hit
L
MTK Budapest II3–4Kaposvar24 Oct · home
Pick: Kaposvar 60% · hit
L
Iváncsa5–2MTK Budapest II17 Oct · away
Pick: Iváncsa 49% · hit
W
Paksi SE II2–4MTK Budapest II29 Aug · away
Pick: MTK Budapest II 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

PTE-PEAC and MTK Budapest II meet in NB III - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: PTE-PEAC win 35.6%, draw 21.2%, MTK Budapest II win 43.2%. The pick is MTK Budapest II win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.4%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.