ScoreProb
NB III - Southwest Hungary Southwest - 15 2026

Budaörs vs Ferencváros II

Budaörs Home · Elo 1,503
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ferencváros II Away · Elo 1,586
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ferencváros II win
Budaörs win
33.7%
Draw
22.8%
Ferencváros II winPick
43.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.9%
No35.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.4%
Under 2.526.6%

How much we know

Budaörs history51 matches
Ferencváros II history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ferencváros II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ferencváros II are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,586 against 1,503. On rating alone Ferencváros II would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Ferencváros II score more

    1.73 goals a game over 51 matches for Budaörs, against 2.17 over 46 for Ferencváros II.

  • Ferencváros II concede fewer

    Budaörs concede 1.92 a game, Ferencváros II 1.41.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of Budaörs matches, against 74% for Ferencváros II. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Budaörs
Ferencváros II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.9
ELO
1586.4
51
ELO · Matches
46
1502.9
Current Team ELO
1586.4
1586.4
Current Opponent ELO
1502.9
-83.47
Current ELO Difference
83.47
0.38
Expected score
0.62
51
History Matches
46
0.01
Residual Mean
0.09
50.40
Overperformance
56.12
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.40
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.70
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
2.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
2.06
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
46
1.35
PPG
1.93
39.2%
Win rate
58.7%
17.6%
Draw rate
17.4%
43.1%
Loss rate
23.9%
84.3%
Over 1.5 rate
91.3%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
73.9%
49.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.9%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
24
1.58
PPG
1.96
46.2%
Win rate
62.5%
19.2%
Draw rate
8.3%
34.6%
Loss rate
29.2%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
79.2%
57.7%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
2.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.73
Goals for per game
2.17
72.5%
Scoring rate
87.0%
58.8%
BTTS rate
60.9%
2.23
Goals for per game
1.92
80.8%
Scoring rate
79.2%
65.4%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
51
History Matches
46
1.73
Goals Mean
2.17
1.70
Goals Std
1.29
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
87.0%
45.1%
Scored 2+ rate
67.4%
27.5%
Scored 3+ rate
47.8%
2.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.92
Goals against per game
1.41
82.4%
Conceding rate
73.9%
1.65
Goals against per game
1.63
76.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.75
Goals against per game
1.67
75.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
51
History Matches
46
1.92
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.56
Conceded Std
1.19
54.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.5%
29.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
46
0.94
Result entropy
0.87
2.56
Goal Difference Std
2.04
5.71
Stability score
12.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
46
18
Lead Matches
22
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.82
18
Trailing Matches
9
16.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.06
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
19
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.75
PPG
1.33
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
3.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.97
73.90
Portability Score
55.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-83.47
PPG-0.58
GF-0.45
GA0.51
PPG0.42
PPG-0.38
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate14.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.45
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean0.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.37
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.51
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate14.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.81
History Matches5
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score-6.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.18
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate6.1%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.28
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.42
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.59
Portability Score18.21
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.26
Current Team ELO-83.47
Current Opponent ELO83.47
Current ELO Difference-166.9
Expected score-0.24
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Budaörs

L
Majosi4–3Budaörs31 Oct · away
Pick: Majosi 53% · hit
L
Budaörs0–6Pécsi MFC24 Oct · home
Pick: Pécsi MFC 72% · hit
L
Dunaharaszti MTK3–0Budaörs17 Oct · away
Pick: Dunaharaszti MTK 48% · hit
L
Budaörs1–3Budafoki LC29 Aug · home
Pick: Budafoki LC 39% · hit
L
PTE-PEAC6–1Budaörs26 Aug · away
Pick: PTE-PEAC 48% · hit

Ferencváros II

W
Ferencváros II5–0Szekszárd31 Oct · home
Pick: Ferencváros II 79% · hit
L
Siofok3–1Ferencváros II24 Oct · away
Pick: Siofok 47% · hit
W
Ferencváros II3–1Budafoki LC17 Oct · home
Pick: Ferencváros II 40% · hit
W
Ferencváros II1–0Sárbogárd29 Aug · home
Pick: Ferencváros II 82% · hit
W
Ferencváros II5–0Majosi26 Aug · home
Pick: Ferencváros II 40% · hit

About this match

Budaörs and Ferencváros II meet in NB III - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Budaörs win 33.7%, draw 22.8%, Ferencváros II win 43.4%. The pick is Ferencváros II win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.4%. Both teams to score: 64.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.