ScoreProb
NB III - Southwest Hungary Southwest - 15 2026

Sárbogárd vs Dunaharaszti MTK

Sárbogárd Home · Elo 1,450
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dunaharaszti MTK Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dunaharaszti MTK win
Sárbogárd win
14.8%
Draw
19.0%
Dunaharaszti MTK winPick
66.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.8%
No50.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.2%
Under 2.532.8%

How much we know

Sárbogárd history8 matches
Dunaharaszti MTK history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Dunaharaszti MTK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dunaharaszti MTK are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,450. On rating alone Dunaharaszti MTK would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Dunaharaszti MTK score far more

    0.75 goals a game over 8 matches for Sárbogárd, against 1.78 over 51 for Dunaharaszti MTK.

  • Dunaharaszti MTK concede fewer

    Sárbogárd concede 3.13 a game, Dunaharaszti MTK 1.69.

  • Sárbogárd games more often go over 2.5 goals

    88% of Sárbogárd matches, against 67% for Dunaharaszti MTK. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sárbogárd
Dunaharaszti MTK
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1449.9
ELO
1499.9
8
ELO · Matches
51
1449.9
Current Team ELO
1499.9
1499.9
Current Opponent ELO
1449.9
-50.00
Current ELO Difference
50.00
0.43
Expected score
0.57
8
History Matches
51
-0.31
Residual Mean
-0.01
41.13
Overperformance
49.42
-0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.40
0.20
Goals for per game
1.20
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
8
Matches
10
0.38
PPG
1.20
0.75
Goals for per game
1.40
3.13
Goals against per game
1.60
12.5%
Win rate
20.0%
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.97
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
3.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
8
Matches
51
0.38
PPG
1.29
12.5%
Win rate
35.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
23.5%
87.5%
Loss rate
41.2%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
28
0.00
PPG
1.29
0.0%
Win rate
35.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
100.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
53.6%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
4
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.75
Goals for per game
1.78
50.0%
Scoring rate
74.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
62.7%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.14
50.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
67.9%
0.25
Goals for per game
0.75
25.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
8
History Matches
51
0.75
Goals Mean
1.78
0.97
Goals Std
1.86
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.5%
12.5%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
25.5%
0.50
Venue Goals Mean
2.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.13
Goals against per game
1.69
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.4%
4.00
Goals against per game
2.04
100.0%
Conceding rate
92.9%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
8
History Matches
51
3.13
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.83
Conceded Std
1.31
75.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
62.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.6%
4.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
8
History Matches
51
0.34
Result entropy
0.98
2.34
Goal Difference Std
2.29
65.70
Stability score
2.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
49
0
Lead Matches
14
—
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.88
6
Trailing Matches
19
0.0%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
1.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
4
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
4
Competition Season Count
6
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.16
—
Portability PPG Range
0.38
—
Portability Score
75.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
8
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-50.00
PPG-0.92
GF-1.03
GA1.44
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.29
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.83
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-43
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate24.5%
History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate21.4%
History Matches-43
Goals Mean-1.03
Goals Std-0.89
Scored 1+ rate-0.25
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-1.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.66
History Matches-43
Conceded Mean1.44
Conceded Std0.53
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate22.1%
Conceded 3+ rate40.9%
Venue Conceded Mean1.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.53
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-43
Result entropy-0.63
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score63.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.52
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.36
Eligible Matches-42
Lead Matches-14
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-42
First Half Goals For Mean-0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.55
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-32
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.37
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Current Team ELO-50.00
Current Opponent ELO50.00
Current ELO Difference-99.99
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-43
Residual Mean-0.30
Overperformance-8.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sárbogárd

L
MTK Budapest II2–1Sárbogárd31 Oct · away
Pick: MTK Budapest II 88% · hit
L
Sárbogárd0–6Paksi SE II24 Oct · home
Pick: Paksi SE II 60% · hit
L
Kaposvar7–0Sárbogárd17 Oct · away
Pick: Kaposvar 89% · hit
L
Ferencváros II1–0Sárbogárd29 Aug · away
Pick: Ferencváros II 82% · hit
D
Sárbogárd1–1Siofok26 Aug · home
Pick: Siofok 69% · missed

Dunaharaszti MTK

L
Dunaharaszti MTK0–2Paksi SE II31 Oct · home
Pick: Dunaharaszti MTK 49% · missed
W
Dunaharaszti MTK3–0Budaörs17 Oct · home
Pick: Dunaharaszti MTK 48% · hit
L
Dunaharaszti MTK2–4Kaposvar29 Aug · home
Pick: Kaposvar 66% · hit
W
Iváncsa1–3Dunaharaszti MTK26 Aug · away
Pick: Iváncsa 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sárbogárd and Dunaharaszti MTK meet in NB III - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sárbogárd win 14.8%, draw 19.0%, Dunaharaszti MTK win 66.2%. The pick is Dunaharaszti MTK win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.2%. Both teams to score: 49.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.