Racing de Veracruz vs Irapuato
Match result probability Model pick: Racing de Veracruz win
Racing de Veracruz winPick
43.0%
Draw
28.4%
Irapuato win
28.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.9%
No47.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
How much we know
Racing de Veracruz history36 matches
Irapuato history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Racing de Veracruz
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 21:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 22:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.0%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.
Why Racing de Veracruz are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Racing de Veracruz are rated 119 Elo points higher
Elo 1,647 against 1,528. On rating alone Racing de Veracruz would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.81 goals a game over 36 matches for Racing de Veracruz, against 1.65 over 49 for Irapuato.
-
Racing de Veracruz concede fewer
Racing de Veracruz concede 0.67 a game, Irapuato 1.18.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
47% of Racing de Veracruz matches, against 55% for Irapuato. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Irapuato@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1646.7
ELO
1527.9
36
ELO · Matches
49
1646.7
Current Team ELO
1527.9
1527.9
Current Opponent ELO
1646.7
118.8
Current ELO Difference
-118.8
0.66
Expected score
0.34
36
History Matches
49
0.20
Residual Mean
0.03
62.68
Overperformance
52.03
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
0.50
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.04
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.79
Overall performance9 signals 90
36
Matches
49
2.28
PPG
1.55
69.4%
Win rate
38.8%
19.4%
Draw rate
38.8%
11.1%
Loss rate
22.4%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.7%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals 100
17
Matches
24
2.53
PPG
1.04
82.4%
Win rate
20.8%
5.9%
Draw rate
41.7%
11.8%
Loss rate
37.5%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
17
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.81
Goals for per game
1.65
86.1%
Scoring rate
75.5%
36.1%
BTTS rate
55.1%
2.18
Goals for per game
1.08
94.1%
Scoring rate
70.8%
41.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
36
History Matches
49
1.81
Goals Mean
1.65
1.29
Goals Std
1.46
86.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
52.8%
Scored 2+ rate
44.9%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
2.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.67
Goals against per game
1.18
38.9%
Conceding rate
67.3%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.33
47.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
36
History Matches
49
0.67
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.11
Conceded Std
1.21
13.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
61.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
61.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
5.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
61.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
36
History Matches
49
0.74
Result entropy
0.97
1.80
Goal Difference Std
2.03
25.74
Stability score
2.60
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
36
Eligible Matches
49
17
Lead Matches
15
94.1%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.80
7
Trailing Matches
13
42.9%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
36
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
196.3
Rest days
202.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
25
2.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
21
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.62
63.64
Portability Score
61.66
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
36
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO118.8
PPG0.73
GF0.15
GA-0.52
PPG1.49
PPG0.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate28.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-13
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate10.6%
Scored 2+ rate7.9%
Scored 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.37
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate28.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches-13
Result entropy-0.23
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score23.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.77
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate20.8%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate4.4%
Trailing Win Rate28.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score1.98
Rest days-6.63
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.41
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO118.8
Current Opponent ELO-118.8
Current ELO Difference237.6
Expected score0.33
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance10.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Racing de Veracruz
W
Zacatepec 19481–5Racing de Veracruz31 Oct · away
Pick: Racing de Veracruz 37% · hit W
Inter Playa del Carmen0–1Racing de Veracruz17 Oct · away
Pick: Racing de Veracruz 45% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Irapuato
W
Irapuato2–1Deportiva Venados1 Nov · home
Pick: Irapuato 39% · hit W
Irapuato2–0Zacatepec 194818 Oct · home
Pick: Irapuato 48% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Racing de Veracruz and Irapuato meet in Primera Premier on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Racing de Veracruz win 43.0%, draw 28.4%, Irapuato win 28.6%. The pick is Racing de Veracruz win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.9%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.