ScoreProb
Primera Premier Mexico Round 11 2026

Deportiva Venados vs Tritons Vallarta

Deportiva Venados Home · Elo 1,624
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tritons Vallarta Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportiva Venados win
Deportiva Venados winPick
65.5%
Draw
18.2%
Tritons Vallarta win
16.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.4%
No54.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Deportiva Venados history39 matches
Tritons Vallarta history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Deportiva Venados are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Deportiva Venados are rated 135 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,624 against 1,490. On rating alone Deportiva Venados would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Deportiva Venados score far more

    2.18 goals a game over 39 matches for Deportiva Venados, against 0.71 over 17 for Tritons Vallarta.

  • Deportiva Venados concede fewer

    Deportiva Venados concede 0.82 a game, Tritons Vallarta 1.18.

  • Deportiva Venados games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Deportiva Venados matches, against 18% for Tritons Vallarta. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportiva Venados
Tritons Vallarta@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1624.5
ELO
1489.7
39
ELO · Matches
17
1624.5
Current Team ELO
1489.7
1489.7
Current Opponent ELO
1624.5
134.7
Current ELO Difference
-134.7
0.68
Expected score
0.32
39
History Matches
17
0.16
Residual Mean
-0.08
60.53
Overperformance
46.50
0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.40
2.20
Goals for per game
0.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
1.10
2.00
Goals for per game
0.70
0.50
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
2.05
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
17
2.08
PPG
1.00
61.5%
Win rate
23.5%
23.1%
Draw rate
29.4%
15.4%
Loss rate
47.1%
71.8%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
59.0%
Over 2.5 rate
17.6%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
11.8%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
13
2.15
PPG
0.54
65.0%
Win rate
7.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
30.8%
15.0%
Loss rate
61.5%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
23.1%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
20
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.18
Goals for per game
0.71
76.9%
Scoring rate
52.9%
53.8%
BTTS rate
29.4%
2.65
Goals for per game
0.62
85.0%
Scoring rate
46.2%
55.0%
BTTS rate
38.5%
39
History Matches
17
2.18
Goals Mean
0.71
1.96
Goals Std
0.75
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
52.9%
53.8%
Scored 2+ rate
17.6%
41.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.65
Venue Goals Mean
0.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.82
Goals against per game
1.18
64.1%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.54
65.0%
Conceding rate
92.3%
39
History Matches
17
0.82
Conceded Mean
1.18
0.71
Conceded Std
1.10
17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.8%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
7.7%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.8%
35.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
17
0.84
Result entropy
0.96
2.04
Goal Difference Std
1.46
15.79
Stability score
3.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
16
16
Lead Matches
4
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.83
5
Trailing Matches
6
20.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
1.26
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.19
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.9
Rest days
196.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
17
Normal Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.33
20
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.06
Portability PPG Std
—
0.11
Portability PPG Range
—
90.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO134.7
PPG1.08
GF1.47
GA-0.36
PPG1.61
PPG2.20
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate27.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.39
History Matches22
Goals Mean1.47
Goals Std1.21
Scored 1+ rate24.0%
Scored 2+ rate36.2%
Scored 3+ rate41.0%
Venue Goals Mean2.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.27
History Matches22
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches22
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.58
Stability score11.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-14.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.67
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.90
Current Team ELO134.7
Current Opponent ELO-134.7
Current ELO Difference269.4
Expected score0.37
History Matches22
Residual Mean0.24
Overperformance14.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportiva Venados

L
Irapuato2–1Deportiva Venados1 Nov · away
Pick: Irapuato 39% · hit
W
Deportiva Venados5–2Tigres de Alica24 Oct · home
Pick: Deportiva Venados 57% · hit
W
Tapachula1–4Deportiva Venados20 Oct · away
Pick: Deportiva Venados 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tritons Vallarta

L
Chapulineros2–1Tritons Vallarta24 Oct · away
Pick: Chapulineros 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Deportiva Venados and Tritons Vallarta meet in Primera Premier on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Deportiva Venados win 65.5%, draw 18.2%, Tritons Vallarta win 16.3%. The pick is Deportiva Venados win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 45.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.