ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 11 2026

Racing Ferrol vs UD Logroñés

Racing Ferrol Home · Elo 1,455
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
UD Logroñés Away · Elo 1,597
Estadio Municipal da Malata, Ferrol Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: UD Logroñés win
Racing Ferrol win
33.7%
Draw
30.5%
UD Logroñés winPick
35.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.5%
No54.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%

How much we know

Racing Ferrol history65 matches
UD Logroñés history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why UD Logroñés are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • UD Logroñés are rated 142 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,597 against 1,455. On rating alone UD Logroñés would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • UD Logroñés score far more

    0.86 goals a game over 65 matches for Racing Ferrol, against 1.80 over 59 for UD Logroñés.

  • UD Logroñés concede fewer

    Racing Ferrol concede 1.34 a game, UD Logroñés 0.92.

  • UD Logroñés games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Racing Ferrol matches, against 56% for UD Logroñés. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Racing Ferrol
UD Logroñés
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1455.4
ELO
1597.1
65
ELO · Matches
59
1455.4
Current Team ELO
1597.1
1597.1
Current Opponent ELO
1455.4
-141.7
Current ELO Difference
141.7
0.31
Expected score
0.69
65
History Matches
59
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.09
47.44
Overperformance
56.68
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
2.40
0.90
Goals for per game
2.10
1.50
Goals against per game
0.40
10.0%
Win rate
80.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
59
1.08
PPG
1.68
27.7%
Win rate
49.2%
24.6%
Draw rate
20.3%
47.7%
Loss rate
30.5%
63.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
44.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
27
1.19
PPG
1.22
28.1%
Win rate
33.3%
34.4%
Draw rate
22.2%
37.5%
Loss rate
44.4%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
21.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
32
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.86
Goals for per game
1.80
61.5%
Scoring rate
76.3%
44.6%
BTTS rate
40.7%
0.91
Goals for per game
1.30
56.3%
Scoring rate
63.0%
43.8%
BTTS rate
37.0%
65
History Matches
59
0.86
Goals Mean
1.80
0.84
Goals Std
1.54
61.5%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
47.5%
4.6%
Scored 3+ rate
32.2%
0.91
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.34
Goals against per game
0.92
70.8%
Conceding rate
59.3%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.15
71.9%
Conceding rate
70.4%
65
History Matches
59
1.34
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.15
Conceded Std
0.96
43.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.0%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.2%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
59
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
1.44
Goal Difference Std
2.08
4.08
Stability score
5.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
58
13
Lead Matches
24
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
79.2%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.83
26
Trailing Matches
13
15.4%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.79
Rest days
77.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
28
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.79
Portability PPG Range
0.92
58.91
Portability Score
56.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-141.7
PPG-0.60
GF-0.94
GA0.42
PPG-0.03
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate14.7%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.94
Goals Std-0.70
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate-0.28
Venue Goals Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.42
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate21.0%
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.84
History Matches6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.65
Stability score-1.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score2.08
Rest days8.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-141.7
Current Opponent ELO141.7
Current ELO Difference-283.4
Expected score-0.39
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-9.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Racing Ferrol

D
Racing Ferrol0–0Ponferradina31 Oct · home
Pick: Ponferradina 46% · missed
L
Mirandes2–0Racing Ferrol24 Oct · away
Pick: Mirandes 47% · hit
W
Racing Ferrol1–0Unionistas de Salamanca17 Oct · home
Pick: Racing Ferrol 38% · hit
D
Arenas Getxo1–1Racing Ferrol29 Aug · away
Pick: Arenas Getxo 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

UD Logroñés

L
UD Logroñés0–1Mirandes31 Oct · home
Pick: UD Logroñés 41% · missed
W
Real Avilés1–3UD Logroñés24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Avilés 42% · missed
D
UD Logroñés1–1Cultural Leonesa18 Oct · home
Pick: UD Logroñés 43% · missed
L
Lugo3–1UD Logroñés12 Oct · away
Pick: UD Logroñés 39% · missed
W
UD Logroñés2–1Deportivo La Coruña II4 Oct · home
Pick: UD Logroñés 48% · hit

About this match

Racing Ferrol and UD Logroñés meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal da Malata, Ferrol. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Racing Ferrol win 33.7%, draw 30.5%, UD Logroñés win 35.8%. The pick is UD Logroñés win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 45.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.