Unionistas de Salamanca vs Zamora
Unionistas de Salamanca
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Zamora
Match result probability Model pick: Unionistas de Salamanca win
Unionistas de Salamanca winPick
40.1%
Draw
28.1%
Zamora win
31.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.4%
No49.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%
How much we know
Unionistas de Salamanca history63 matches
Zamora history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Unionistas de Salamanca
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 17:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Unionistas de Salamanca are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Zamora are rated 27 Elo points higher
Elo 1,557 against 1,530. On rating alone Zamora would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.19 goals a game over 63 matches for Unionistas de Salamanca, against 1.26 over 61 for Zamora.
-
Zamora concede fewer
Unionistas de Salamanca concede 1.29 a game, Zamora 1.08.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
43% of Unionistas de Salamanca matches, against 39% for Zamora. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unionistas de Salamanca
Zamora
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1530.2
ELO
1557.1
63
ELO · Matches
61
1530.2
Current Team ELO
1557.1
1557.1
Current Opponent ELO
1530.2
-26.91
Current ELO Difference
26.91
0.46
Expected score
0.54
63
History Matches
61
0.03
Residual Mean
0.05
52.00
Overperformance
53.60
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.10
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals 90
63
Matches
61
1.35
PPG
1.54
36.5%
Win rate
42.6%
25.4%
Draw rate
26.2%
38.1%
Loss rate
31.1%
65.1%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
23.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
30
1.75
PPG
1.17
46.9%
Win rate
30.0%
34.4%
Draw rate
26.7%
18.8%
Loss rate
43.3%
59.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
36.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
32
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.19
Goals for per game
1.26
65.1%
Scoring rate
75.4%
44.4%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.07
65.6%
Scoring rate
63.3%
40.6%
BTTS rate
46.7%
63
History Matches
61
1.19
Goals Mean
1.26
1.17
Goals Std
1.04
65.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.4%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
13.1%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.08
66.7%
Conceding rate
65.6%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.33
56.3%
Conceding rate
76.7%
63
History Matches
61
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.24
Conceded Std
1.04
38.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.5%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
34.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
34.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
63
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.47
1.37
Stability score
1.89
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
63
Eligible Matches
61
16
Lead Matches
22
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
68.2%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.73
17
Trailing Matches
12
29.4%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
78.01
Rest days
140.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
29
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.75
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.56
Portability PPG Range
0.67
66.15
Portability Score
64.62
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
63
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-26.91
PPG-0.19
GF-0.07
GA0.20
PPG0.58
PPG0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate10.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate20.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-0.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.69
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate13.1%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate4.4%
Trailing Win Rate11.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score1.52
Rest days-62.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Current Team ELO-26.91
Current Opponent ELO26.91
Current ELO Difference-53.82
Expected score-0.08
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Unionistas de Salamanca
L
Extremadura 19243–0Unionistas de Salamanca1 Nov · away
Pick: Extremadura 1924 43% · hit W
Unionistas de Salamanca2–1Athletic Club II24 Oct · home
Pick: Athletic Club II 39% · missed L
Racing Ferrol1–0Unionistas de Salamanca17 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Ferrol 38% · hit L
Unionistas de Salamanca1–3Lugo30 Aug · home
Pick: Unionistas de Salamanca 48% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Zamora
L
Zamora1–3Deportivo La Coruña II1 Nov · home
Pick: Zamora 42% · missed L
Cacereño1–0Zamora24 Oct · away
Pick: Cacereño 38% · hit D
Zamora1–1Ponferradina17 Oct · home
Pick: Ponferradina 42% · missed W
Zamora2–0CD Coria4 Oct · home
Pick: Zamora 47% · hit D
Zamora1–1Athletic Club II29 Aug · home
Pick: Athletic Club II 38% · missed About this match
Unionistas de Salamanca and Zamora meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Reina Sofia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Unionistas de Salamanca win 40.1%, draw 28.1%, Zamora win 31.8%. The pick is Unionistas de Salamanca win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.0%. Both teams to score: 50.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.