ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 4 2026

Rangers vs New Jack

Rangers Home · Elo 1,467
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
New Jack Away · Elo 1,472
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rangers win
Rangers winPick
44.9%
Draw
32.5%
New Jack win
22.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.6%
No58.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.0%
Under 2.564.0%

How much we know

Rangers history43 matches
New Jack history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rangers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,467 against 1,472. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.79 goals a game over 43 matches for Rangers, against 0.73 over 30 for New Jack.

  • New Jack concede fewer

    Rangers concede 1.19 a game, New Jack 1.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    26% of Rangers matches, against 30% for New Jack. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rangers
New Jack
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1467.5
ELO
1471.7
43
ELO · Matches
30
1467.5
Current Team ELO
1471.7
1471.7
Current Opponent ELO
1467.5
-4.17
Current ELO Difference
4.17
0.49
Expected score
0.51
43
History Matches
30
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.05
47.34
Overperformance
46.86
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
0.50
Goals for per game
0.50
0.70
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
30
1.09
PPG
1.07
23.3%
Win rate
23.3%
39.5%
Draw rate
36.7%
37.2%
Loss rate
40.0%
58.1%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
25.6%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
18.6%
Over 3.5 rate
3.3%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
16
1.10
PPG
0.81
23.8%
Win rate
18.8%
38.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
38.1%
Loss rate
56.3%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
23.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
6.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
21
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.79
Goals for per game
0.73
51.2%
Scoring rate
60.0%
37.2%
BTTS rate
46.7%
0.81
Goals for per game
0.56
52.4%
Scoring rate
43.8%
38.1%
BTTS rate
37.5%
43
History Matches
30
0.79
Goals Mean
0.73
1.00
Goals Std
0.68
51.2%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
16.3%
Scored 2+ rate
13.3%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
0.81
Venue Goals Mean
0.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.19
Goals against per game
1.07
67.4%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.31
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
43
History Matches
30
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.21
Conceded Std
0.89
27.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.0%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
48.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
47.6%
Failed-to-score rate
56.3%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
48.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
47.6%
Failed-to-score rate
56.3%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
30
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.14
2.25
Stability score
2.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
22
8
Lead Matches
5
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.67
4
Trailing Matches
9
50.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
207.0
Rest days
201.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.10
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
18
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
14
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.29
78.44
Portability Score
77.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-4.17
PPG0.03
GF0.06
GA0.12
PPG0.28
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate8.8%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate2.9%
Scored 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches13
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate27.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score1.02
Rest days6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.40
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO-4.17
Current Opponent ELO4.17
Current ELO Difference-8.35
Expected score-0.01
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rangers

L
Etoile de Kivu2–1Rangers31 Oct · away
Pick: Rangers 38% · missed
L
Rangers0–1Anges Verts26 Oct · home
Pick: Rangers 42% · missed
D
Dauphins Noirs0–0Rangers20 Oct · away
Pick: Rangers 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

New Jack

D
New Jack0–0Etoile de Kivu24 Oct · home
Pick: New Jack 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rangers and New Jack meet in Ligue 1 on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Rangers win 44.9%, draw 32.5%, New Jack win 22.6%. The pick is Rangers win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.0%. Both teams to score: 41.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.