ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Reading U21 vs Newcastle United U21

Reading U21 Home · Elo 1,492
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Newcastle United U21 Away · Elo 1,456
Select Car Leasing Stadium, Reading Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Reading U21 win
Reading U21 winPick
43.5%
Draw
20.8%
Newcastle United U21 win
35.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.6%
No38.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.2%
Under 2.529.8%

How much we know

Reading U21 history39 matches
Newcastle United U21 history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Reading U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Reading U21 are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,492 against 1,456. On rating alone Reading U21 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Newcastle United U21 score more

    1.49 goals a game over 39 matches for Reading U21, against 1.73 over 45 for Newcastle United U21.

  • Reading U21 concede fewer

    Reading U21 concede 1.85 a game, Newcastle United U21 2.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Reading U21 matches, against 71% for Newcastle United U21. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Reading U21
Newcastle United U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1491.5
ELO
1456.1
39
ELO · Matches
45
1491.5
Current Team ELO
1456.1
1456.1
Current Opponent ELO
1491.5
35.47
Current ELO Difference
-35.47
0.55
Expected score
0.45
39
History Matches
45
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.06
49.17
Overperformance
45.74
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
1.70
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
45
1.36
PPG
1.11
41.0%
Win rate
28.9%
12.8%
Draw rate
24.4%
46.2%
Loss rate
46.7%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
64.1%
Over 2.5 rate
71.1%
41.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
26
1.53
PPG
1.19
47.4%
Win rate
30.8%
10.5%
Draw rate
26.9%
42.1%
Loss rate
42.3%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
61.5%
2.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
19
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.73
82.1%
Scoring rate
73.3%
59.0%
BTTS rate
62.2%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.77
78.9%
Scoring rate
76.9%
47.4%
BTTS rate
65.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
45
1.49
Goals Mean
1.73
1.20
Goals Std
1.55
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
38.5%
Scored 2+ rate
51.1%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
28.9%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.85
Goals against per game
2.18
74.4%
Conceding rate
84.4%
1.63
Goals against per game
2.12
63.2%
Conceding rate
84.6%
3.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
45
1.85
Conceded Mean
2.18
1.78
Conceded Std
1.61
43.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.2%
30.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.8%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
2.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
45
0.90
Result entropy
0.96
2.44
Goal Difference Std
2.36
10.27
Stability score
3.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
45
13
Lead Matches
13
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.90
13
Trailing Matches
18
7.7%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.18
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.04
Rest days
74.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
13
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.87
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
6
Competition Season Count
9
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.58
1.13
Portability PPG Range
1.50
49.83
Portability Score
46.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO35.47
PPG0.25
GF-0.25
GA-0.33
PPG0.00
PPG0.33
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate21.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate8.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score6.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate2.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score3.62
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO35.47
Current Opponent ELO-35.47
Current ELO Difference70.95
Expected score0.10
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Reading U21

L
Exeter U214–3Reading U212 Nov · away
Pick: Reading U21 41% · missed
W
Reading U212–1Nottingham Forest U2124 Oct · home
Pick: Reading U21 42% · hit
L
Liverpool U211–0Reading U2117 Oct · away
Pick: Liverpool U21 49% · hit
L
Reading U211–3Derby County U2124 Aug · home
Pick: Reading U21 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Newcastle United U21

W
Rotherham0–1Newcastle United U213 Nov · away
Pick: Rotherham 62% · missed
W
Newcastle United U212–0Peterborough United U2130 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle United U21 42% · hit
W
Newcastle United U213–2Sunderland U2126 Oct · home
Pick: Sunderland U21 52% · missed
W
Hartlepool1–2Newcastle United U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Hartlepool 44% · missed
L
Solihull Moors2–1Newcastle United U216 Oct · away
Pick: Solihull Moors 58% · hit

About this match

Reading U21 and Newcastle United U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Select Car Leasing Stadium, Reading. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Reading U21 win 43.5%, draw 20.8%, Newcastle United U21 win 35.7%. The pick is Reading U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.2%. Both teams to score: 61.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.