ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Birmingham City U21 vs West Ham United U21

Birmingham City U21 Home · Elo 1,408
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
West Ham United U21 Away · Elo 1,565
The Knighthead Training and Academy Grounds, Birmingham Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: West Ham United U21 win
Birmingham City U21 win
23.2%
Draw
17.6%
West Ham United U21 winPick
59.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.7%
No40.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.9%
Under 2.529.1%

How much we know

Birmingham City U21 history46 matches
West Ham United U21 history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why West Ham United U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • West Ham United U21 are rated 157 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,565 against 1,408. On rating alone West Ham United U21 would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • West Ham United U21 score more

    1.28 goals a game over 46 matches for Birmingham City U21, against 1.91 over 56 for West Ham United U21.

  • West Ham United U21 concede fewer

    Birmingham City U21 concede 2.52 a game, West Ham United U21 1.52.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    78% of Birmingham City U21 matches, against 73% for West Ham United U21. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Birmingham City U21
West Ham United U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1407.7
ELO
1565.0
46
ELO · Matches
56
1407.7
Current Team ELO
1565.0
1565.0
Current Opponent ELO
1407.7
-157.3
Current ELO Difference
157.3
0.29
Expected score
0.71
46
History Matches
56
-0.11
Residual Mean
0.03
42.62
Overperformance
52.24
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.60
2.70
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
56
0.85
PPG
1.70
21.7%
Win rate
48.2%
19.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
58.7%
Loss rate
26.8%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
78.3%
Over 2.5 rate
73.2%
54.3%
Over 3.5 rate
46.4%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
36
0.67
PPG
1.69
9.5%
Win rate
47.2%
38.1%
Draw rate
27.8%
52.4%
Loss rate
25.0%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
52.4%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
21
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.91
67.4%
Scoring rate
89.3%
58.7%
BTTS rate
66.1%
1.14
Goals for per game
2.03
71.4%
Scoring rate
91.7%
71.4%
BTTS rate
77.8%
—
Goals for per game
0.00
—
Scoring rate
0.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
46
History Matches
56
1.28
Goals Mean
1.91
1.15
Goals Std
1.26
67.4%
Scored 1+ rate
89.3%
41.3%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
30.4%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
2.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.52
Goals against per game
1.52
87.0%
Conceding rate
73.2%
2.38
Goals against per game
1.75
90.5%
Conceding rate
83.3%
—
Goals against per game
0.00
—
Conceding rate
0.0%
46
History Matches
56
2.52
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.61
Conceded Std
1.32
71.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
2.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
10.7%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
56
0.88
Result entropy
0.96
2.24
Goal Difference Std
1.96
12.28
Stability score
4.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
55
10
Lead Matches
25
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.0%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.75
26
Trailing Matches
13
15.4%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.24
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
1.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.79
Rest days
72.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
23
Normal Rest History Matches
31
0.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
1.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
100.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
1.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
10
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.73
Portability PPG Range
1.68
62.02
Portability Score
46.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-157.3
PPG-0.85
GF-0.63
GA1.00
PPG-1.03
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate21.9%
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate20.2%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.63
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean1.00
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate28.9%
Conceded 3+ rate25.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score7.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.84
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.95
Portability Score15.71
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO-157.3
Current Opponent ELO157.3
Current ELO Difference-314.5
Expected score-0.42
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Birmingham City U21

L
Woking3–1Birmingham City U213 Nov · away
Pick: Woking 61% · hit
L
Birmingham City U210–3Swansea City U2130 Oct · home
Pick: Swansea City U21 70% · hit
L
Ipswich Town U215–0Birmingham City U2123 Oct · away
Pick: Ipswich Town U21 50% · hit
L
Birmingham City U210–4Derby County U2119 Oct · home
Pick: Birmingham City U21 50% · missed
L
Truro City3–0Birmingham City U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Truro City 67% · hit

West Ham United U21

L
AFC Hornchurch2–0West Ham United U213 Nov · away
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 51% · hit
L
West Ham United U211–2Sheffield United U2130 Oct · home
Pick: Sheffield United U21 41% · hit
W
West Ham United U213–1Burnley U2123 Oct · home
Pick: West Ham United U21 55% · hit
L
West Ham United U211–5Monaco U2120 Oct · home
Pick: West Ham United U21 67% · missed
L
Norwich City U214–2West Ham United U2116 Oct · away
Pick: Norwich City U21 43% · hit

About this match

Birmingham City U21 and West Ham United U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at The Knighthead Training and Academy Grounds, Birmingham. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Birmingham City U21 win 23.2%, draw 17.6%, West Ham United U21 win 59.2%. The pick is West Ham United U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.9%. Both teams to score: 59.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.