ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Southern Central England Round 17 2026

Real Bedford vs Rushall Olympic

Real Bedford Home · Elo 1,650
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rushall Olympic Away · Elo 1,498
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Bedford win
Real Bedford winPick
57.7%
Draw
21.6%
Rushall Olympic win
20.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.0%
No39.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.573.2%
Under 2.526.8%

How much we know

Real Bedford history70 matches
Rushall Olympic history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Real Bedford are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Bedford are rated 153 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,650 against 1,498. On rating alone Real Bedford would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Real Bedford score far more

    2.50 goals a game over 70 matches for Real Bedford, against 1.24 over 70 for Rushall Olympic.

  • Real Bedford concede fewer

    Real Bedford concede 1.29 a game, Rushall Olympic 1.67.

  • Real Bedford games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Real Bedford matches, against 54% for Rushall Olympic. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Bedford
Rushall Olympic
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1650.1
ELO
1497.6
70
ELO · Matches
70
1650.1
Current Team ELO
1497.6
1497.6
Current Opponent ELO
1650.1
152.6
Current ELO Difference
-152.6
0.71
Expected score
0.29
70
History Matches
70
0.11
Residual Mean
0.00
58.64
Overperformance
50.04
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.40
5.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.10
4.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.40
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
4.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
2.52
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
2.24
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
3.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
70
2.10
PPG
1.19
62.9%
Win rate
31.4%
21.4%
Draw rate
24.3%
15.7%
Loss rate
44.3%
84.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
67.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
54.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
35
2.13
PPG
1.09
63.2%
Win rate
28.6%
23.7%
Draw rate
22.9%
13.2%
Loss rate
48.6%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
71.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
60.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
38
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.50
Goals for per game
1.24
85.7%
Scoring rate
74.3%
65.7%
BTTS rate
58.6%
2.76
Goals for per game
1.03
89.5%
Scoring rate
71.4%
71.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
3.75
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
70
2.50
Goals Mean
1.24
1.84
Goals Std
1.13
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
71.4%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
48.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.4%
2.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.67
74.3%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.74
78.9%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
70
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.33
Conceded Std
1.39
30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.3%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
70
0.83
Result entropy
0.97
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.83
16.92
Stability score
2.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
69
26
Lead Matches
13
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.64
12
Trailing Matches
23
33.3%
Non-loss rate
13.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
55
Normal Rest History Matches
57
2.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
11
Long Rest History Matches
7
2.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
2.25
100.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
2.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.77
1.75
Portability PPG Range
1.89
45.25
Portability Score
39.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO152.6
PPG0.91
GF1.26
GA-0.39
PPG0.75
PPG1.05
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches0
Goals Mean1.26
Goals Std0.72
Scored 1+ rate11.4%
Scored 2+ rate40.0%
Scored 3+ rate37.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.44
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.46
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score14.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.32
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate26.9%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate20.3%
Trailing Win Rate12.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score5.95
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.73
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.90
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.27
Current Team ELO152.6
Current Opponent ELO-152.6
Current ELO Difference305.1
Expected score0.41
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Bedford

W
Anstey Nomads1–2Real Bedford3 Nov · away
Pick: Real Bedford 42% · hit
L
Worcester City4–1Real Bedford31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Bedford 47% · missed
L
Real Bedford0–1Stourbridge27 Oct · home
Pick: Real Bedford 64% · missed
L
Bishop's Stortford3–1Real Bedford24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Bedford 65% · missed
D
Real Bedford2–2Bury Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Real Bedford 53% · missed

Rushall Olympic

L
Rushall Olympic0–1Racing Club Warwick31 Oct · home
Pick: Rushall Olympic 52% · missed
L
Kettering Town3–2Rushall Olympic27 Oct · away
Pick: Kettering Town 44% · hit
W
Rushall Olympic3–1Leamington20 Oct · home
Pick: Rushall Olympic 53% · hit
W
Leighton Town0–3Rushall Olympic17 Oct · away
Pick: Leighton Town 39% · missed
L
Anstey Nomads3–2Rushall Olympic13 Oct · away
Pick: Anstey Nomads 50% · hit

About this match

Real Bedford and Rushall Olympic meet in Non League Premier - Southern Central on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Real Bedford win 57.7%, draw 21.6%, Rushall Olympic win 20.7%. The pick is Real Bedford win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.2%. Both teams to score: 61.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.