ScoreProb
Primera B Colombia Round 3 2026

Real Cartagena vs Real Soacha

Real Cartagena Home · Elo 1,555
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Soacha Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Cartagena win
Real Cartagena winPick
46.5%
Draw
26.6%
Real Soacha win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%

How much we know

Real Cartagena history55 matches
Real Soacha history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 15 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 23:10 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Real Cartagena are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,555 against 1,531. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Real Cartagena score more

    1.65 goals a game over 55 matches for Real Cartagena, against 1.31 over 64 for Real Soacha.

  • Real Soacha concede fewer

    Real Cartagena concede 1.07 a game, Real Soacha 0.95.

  • Real Cartagena games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Real Cartagena matches, against 36% for Real Soacha. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Cartagena
Real Soacha
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.4
ELO
1531.4
55
ELO · Matches
64
1555.4
Current Team ELO
1531.4
1531.4
Current Opponent ELO
1555.4
23.97
Current ELO Difference
-23.97
0.53
Expected score
0.47
55
History Matches
64
0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
53.62
Overperformance
51.32
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
2.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
2.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
64
1.71
PPG
1.63
45.5%
Win rate
45.3%
34.5%
Draw rate
26.6%
20.0%
Loss rate
28.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
35.9%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
34
1.96
PPG
1.35
57.1%
Win rate
35.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
29.4%
17.9%
Loss rate
35.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
28
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.65
Goals for per game
1.31
80.0%
Scoring rate
78.1%
60.0%
BTTS rate
43.8%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.21
85.7%
Scoring rate
73.5%
60.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.70
Goals for per game
0.94
82.6%
Scoring rate
61.1%
69.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
64
1.65
Goals Mean
1.31
1.39
Goals Std
1.03
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.1%
47.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.9%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.07
Goals against per game
0.95
67.3%
Conceding rate
59.4%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.15
64.3%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.22
78.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
55
History Matches
64
1.07
Conceded Mean
0.95
0.99
Conceded Std
0.98
27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.1%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.3%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
64
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.35
4.66
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
64
20
Lead Matches
27
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.5%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.88
10
Trailing Matches
11
30.0%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.05
Rest days
75.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
29
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
18
1.74
PPG
0.94
47.8%
Win rate
16.7%
30.4%
Draw rate
44.4%
21.7%
Loss rate
38.9%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
27.8%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.15
23
Current Competition Matches
18
1.74
Current Competition PPG
0.94
0.48
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.28
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.05
Portability PPG Range
1.31
95.55
Portability Score
51.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO23.97
PPG0.08
GF0.34
GA0.12
PPG0.79
PPG0.61
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate1.9%
Scored 2+ rate11.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.77
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.45
Stability score1.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.73
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches5
Current Competition PPG0.79
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.76
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.45
Portability PPG Range-1.26
Portability Score44.29
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO23.97
Current Opponent ELO-23.97
Current ELO Difference47.93
Expected score0.07
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Cartagena

D
Barranquilla1–1Real Cartagena24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Cartagena 41% · missed
W
Real Cartagena3–0Patriotas19 Oct · home
Pick: Real Cartagena 53% · hit
D
Quindio1–1Real Cartagena16 Oct · away
Pick: Quindio 45% · missed
L
Real Cartagena2–3Popayan4 Oct · home
Pick: Real Cartagena 52% · missed
L
Real Cartagena0–3Tigres FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Real Cartagena 53% · missed

Real Soacha

W
Real Soacha1–0Ind. Yumbo24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Soacha 52% · hit
D
Tigres FC0–0Real Soacha20 Oct · away
Pick: Tigres FC 34% · missed
D
Real Soacha0–0Bogota FC14 Oct · home
Pick: Real Soacha 46% · missed
W
Real Soacha4–1Patriotas29 Aug · home
Pick: Real Soacha 51% · hit
L
Orsomarso2–0Real Soacha24 Aug · away
Pick: Orsomarso 36% · hit

About this match

Real Cartagena and Real Soacha meet in Primera B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 23:10 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Real Cartagena win 46.5%, draw 26.6%, Real Soacha win 26.9%. The pick is Real Cartagena win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.