ScoreProb
Primera B Colombia Round 3 2026

Tigres FC vs Quindio

Tigres FC Home · Elo 1,444
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Quindio Away · Elo 1,537
Estadio Metropolitano de Techo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tigres FC win
Tigres FC winPick
35.3%
Draw
30.1%
Quindio win
34.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.1%
No55.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.7%
Under 2.562.3%

How much we know

Tigres FC history61 matches
Quindio history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 11 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Tigres FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Quindio are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,444. On rating alone Quindio would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Quindio score more

    0.84 goals a game over 61 matches for Tigres FC, against 1.18 over 57 for Quindio.

  • Defences are close

    Tigres FC concede 1.11 a game, Quindio 1.14.

  • Quindio games more often go over 2.5 goals

    28% of Tigres FC matches, against 44% for Quindio. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tigres FC
Quindio
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.0
ELO
1537.4
61
ELO · Matches
57
1444.0
Current Team ELO
1537.4
1537.4
Current Opponent ELO
1444.0
-93.45
Current ELO Difference
93.45
0.37
Expected score
0.63
61
History Matches
57
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
46.96
Overperformance
52.79
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
57
1.10
PPG
1.49
26.2%
Win rate
40.4%
31.1%
Draw rate
28.1%
42.6%
Loss rate
31.6%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
27.9%
Over 2.5 rate
43.9%
9.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.3%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
27
1.31
PPG
1.22
34.4%
Win rate
33.3%
28.1%
Draw rate
22.2%
37.5%
Loss rate
44.4%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
6.3%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
32
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.84
Goals for per game
1.18
59.0%
Scoring rate
71.9%
42.6%
BTTS rate
49.1%
0.97
Goals for per game
0.85
65.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
43.8%
BTTS rate
40.7%
0.88
Goals for per game
1.04
58.3%
Scoring rate
70.8%
41.7%
BTTS rate
37.5%
61
History Matches
57
0.84
Goals Mean
1.18
0.81
Goals Std
1.09
59.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
23.0%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
1.6%
Scored 3+ rate
5.3%
0.97
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.14
73.8%
Conceding rate
68.4%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.37
68.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.63
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
61
History Matches
57
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.96
Conceded Std
1.05
27.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
6.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
41.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
41.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
34.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
57
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.37
Goal Difference Std
1.56
1.89
Stability score
1.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
57
13
Lead Matches
19
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.74
19
Trailing Matches
11
36.8%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.96
Rest days
75.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
22
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
24
Matches
24
1.17
PPG
1.79
29.2%
Win rate
50.0%
29.2%
Draw rate
29.2%
41.7%
Loss rate
20.8%
54.2%
Over 1.5 rate
45.8%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
4.2%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
24
Current Competition Matches
24
1.17
Current Competition PPG
1.79
-0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.42
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.02
Portability PPG Range
0.56
98.51
Portability Score
68.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-93.45
PPG-0.39
GF-0.34
GA-0.03
PPG-0.63
PPG0.09
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate12.9%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate8.5%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate9.6%
Trailing Win Rate1.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.63
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.54
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score30.47
Rest days-0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Current Team ELO-93.45
Current Opponent ELO93.45
Current ELO Difference-186.9
Expected score-0.26
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tigres FC

L
Quindio2–0Tigres FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Quindio 53% · hit
D
Tigres FC0–0Real Soacha20 Oct · home
Pick: Tigres FC 34% · missed
D
Ind. Yumbo1–1Tigres FC8 Oct · away
Pick: Ind. Yumbo 46% · missed
W
Tigres FC1–0Internacional Palmira4 Oct · home
Pick: Internacional Palmira 37% · missed
W
Real Cartagena0–3Tigres FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Real Cartagena 53% · missed

Quindio

W
Quindio2–0Tigres FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Quindio 53% · hit
W
Depor FC0–1Quindio20 Oct · away
Pick: Quindio 61% · hit
D
Quindio1–1Real Cartagena16 Oct · home
Pick: Quindio 45% · missed
W
Orsomarso0–1Quindio6 Oct · away
Pick: Orsomarso 37% · missed
W
Union Magdalena0–2Quindio29 Aug · away
Pick: Union Magdalena 43% · missed

About this match

Tigres FC and Quindio meet in Primera B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Tigres FC win 35.3%, draw 30.1%, Quindio win 34.6%. The pick is Tigres FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.7%. Both teams to score: 44.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.