Real Madrid W vs FC Levante Badalona
Match result probability Model pick: Real Madrid W win
Real Madrid W winPick
59.8%
Draw
18.3%
FC Levante Badalona win
22.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.1%
No48.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%
How much we know
Real Madrid W history62 matches
FC Levante Badalona history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Real Madrid W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Real Madrid W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Real Madrid W are rated 219 Elo points higher
Elo 1,694 against 1,475. On rating alone Real Madrid W would be expected to take 78% of the points on offer.
-
Real Madrid W score far more
2.31 goals a game over 62 matches for Real Madrid W, against 0.84 over 44 for FC Levante Badalona.
-
Real Madrid W concede fewer
Real Madrid W concede 1.08 a game, FC Levante Badalona 1.57.
-
Real Madrid W games more often go over 2.5 goals
69% of Real Madrid W matches, against 36% for FC Levante Badalona. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 31 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Levante Badalona@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1694.0
ELO
1474.5
62
ELO · Matches
44
1694.0
Current Team ELO
1474.5
1474.5
Current Opponent ELO
1694.0
219.5
Current ELO Difference
-219.5
0.78
Expected score
0.22
62
History Matches
44
0.15
Residual Mean
-0.03
61.36
Overperformance
48.13
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.20
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
2.50
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
2.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.80
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.86
Overall performance9 signals 90
62
Matches
44
2.26
PPG
1.11
71.0%
Win rate
27.3%
12.9%
Draw rate
29.5%
16.1%
Loss rate
43.2%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
65.9%
69.4%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
37.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
22
2.43
PPG
1.23
76.7%
Win rate
31.8%
13.3%
Draw rate
27.3%
10.0%
Loss rate
40.9%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
30
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.31
Goals for per game
0.84
87.1%
Scoring rate
50.0%
43.5%
BTTS rate
36.4%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.00
93.3%
Scoring rate
54.5%
36.7%
BTTS rate
36.4%
62
History Matches
44
2.31
Goals Mean
0.84
1.53
Goals Std
1.09
87.1%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
71.0%
Scored 2+ rate
22.7%
40.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.8%
2.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.08
Goals against per game
1.57
54.8%
Conceding rate
70.5%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.59
43.3%
Conceding rate
68.2%
62
History Matches
44
1.08
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.42
Conceded Std
1.54
27.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
56.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
56.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
45.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
62
History Matches
44
0.73
Result entropy
0.98
2.35
Goal Difference Std
1.93
27.01
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
62
Eligible Matches
44
37
Lead Matches
11
91.9%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.88
9
Trailing Matches
15
22.2%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
1.13
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.18
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
167.4
Rest days
167.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
17
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.68
Portability PPG Range
0.59
63.54
Portability Score
63.06
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
62
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO219.5
PPG1.14
GF1.47
GA-0.49
PPG1.21
PPG1.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate15.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate24.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.39
History Matches18
Goals Mean1.47
Goals Std0.44
Scored 1+ rate37.1%
Scored 2+ rate48.2%
Scored 3+ rate33.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches18
Conceded Mean-0.49
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate15.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.57
History Matches18
Result entropy-0.25
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score25.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.15
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches26
Lead Win Rate10.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate8.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score0.48
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match1.74
Current Team ELO219.5
Current Opponent ELO-219.5
Current ELO Difference439.0
Expected score0.56
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance13.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Real Madrid W
D
Athletic Club W1–1Real Madrid W7 Nov · away
Pick: Real Madrid W 52% · missed W
Sevilla W1–3Real Madrid W1 Nov · away
Pick: Real Madrid W 54% · hit D
Bayern Munich W2–2Real Madrid W28 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern Munich W 42% · missed W
Real Madrid W3–2Granad. Tenerife W24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid W 59% · hit W
Real Madrid W3–1Espanyol W17 Oct · home
Pick: Real Madrid W 67% · hit FC Levante Badalona
L
FC Levante Badalona0–4Barcelona W1 Nov · home
Pick: Barcelona W 60% · hit L
Edf Logrono W1–0FC Levante Badalona24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Levante Badalona 48% · missed L
FC Levante Badalona0–4Granad. Tenerife W17 Oct · home
Pick: Granad. Tenerife W 46% · hit L
Athletic Club W3–1FC Levante Badalona30 Aug · away
Pick: Athletic Club W 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Real Madrid W and FC Levante Badalona meet in Primera División Femenina on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Real Madrid W win 59.8%, draw 18.3%, FC Levante Badalona win 22.0%. The pick is Real Madrid W win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.9%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.