ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone H Italy Group H - 11 2026

Real Normanna vs Manfredonia

Real Normanna Home · Elo 1,506
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Manfredonia Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Manfredonia win
Real Normanna win
32.7%
Draw
31.5%
Manfredonia winPick
35.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.7%
No56.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.530.9%
Under 2.569.1%

How much we know

Real Normanna history34 matches
Manfredonia history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Manfredonia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,506 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Manfredonia score more

    0.79 goals a game over 34 matches for Real Normanna, against 1.04 over 49 for Manfredonia.

  • Real Normanna concede fewer

    Real Normanna concede 0.76 a game, Manfredonia 1.12.

  • Manfredonia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    15% of Real Normanna matches, against 37% for Manfredonia. The model puts this match at 31% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Normanna
Manfredonia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.4
ELO
1496.0
34
ELO · Matches
49
1506.4
Current Team ELO
1496.0
1496.0
Current Opponent ELO
1506.4
10.35
Current ELO Difference
-10.35
0.51
Expected score
0.49
34
History Matches
49
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.65
Overperformance
49.31
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
49
1.26
PPG
1.31
29.4%
Win rate
32.7%
38.2%
Draw rate
32.7%
32.4%
Loss rate
34.7%
44.1%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
14.7%
Over 2.5 rate
36.7%
11.8%
Over 3.5 rate
18.4%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
26
1.76
PPG
0.88
47.1%
Win rate
19.2%
35.3%
Draw rate
30.8%
17.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
47.1%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
17.6%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
17
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.79
Goals for per game
1.04
52.9%
Scoring rate
65.3%
29.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.06
Goals for per game
0.85
64.7%
Scoring rate
57.7%
29.4%
BTTS rate
46.2%
34
History Matches
49
0.79
Goals Mean
1.04
0.90
Goals Std
0.99
52.9%
Scored 1+ rate
65.3%
20.6%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
5.9%
Scored 3+ rate
8.2%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.76
Goals against per game
1.12
55.9%
Conceding rate
61.2%
0.65
Goals against per game
1.42
47.1%
Conceding rate
73.1%
34
History Matches
49
0.76
Conceded Mean
1.12
0.81
Conceded Std
1.22
17.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
2.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
49
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.07
Goal Difference Std
1.35
0.55
Stability score
0.04
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
49
7
Lead Matches
10
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.93
8
Trailing Matches
15
25.0%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.32
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.32
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
10
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.01
—
Portability PPG Range
0.02
—
Portability Score
97.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO10.35
PPG-0.04
GF-0.25
GA-0.36
PPG0.88
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate12.4%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate26.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.42
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score0.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO10.35
Current Opponent ELO-10.35
Current ELO Difference20.71
Expected score0.03
History Matches-15
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Normanna

D
Real Forio 20141–1Real Normanna1 Nov · away
Pick: Real Normanna 35% · missed
W
Real Normanna6–0L'Aquila28 Oct · home
Pick: L'Aquila 39% · missed
D
Gladiator3–3Real Normanna18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Normanna 35% · missed
L
Brindisi3–0Real Normanna4 Oct · away
Pick: Real Normanna 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Manfredonia

W
Manfredonia3–0Melfi1 Nov · home
Pick: Manfredonia 61% · hit
L
Virtus Francavilla2–0Manfredonia25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
W
Manfredonia2–0Ischia18 Oct · home
Pick: Manfredonia 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Real Normanna and Manfredonia meet in Serie D - Girone H on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Real Normanna win 32.7%, draw 31.5%, Manfredonia win 35.8%. The pick is Manfredonia win. Over 2.5 goals: 30.9%. Both teams to score: 43.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.