ScoreProb
Druha Liga Ukraine Round 14 2026

Rebel vs Penuel

Rebel Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Penuel Away · Elo 1,387
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rebel win
Rebel winPick
43.6%
Draw
24.4%
Penuel win
32.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.6%
Under 2.542.4%

How much we know

Rebel history34 matches
Penuel history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Rebel are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rebel are rated 112 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,387. On rating alone Rebel would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Rebel score more

    1.21 goals a game over 34 matches for Rebel, against 0.89 over 35 for Penuel.

  • Rebel concede fewer

    Rebel concede 1.18 a game, Penuel 2.20.

  • Penuel games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Rebel matches, against 51% for Penuel. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rebel
Penuel
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.0
ELO
1387.3
34
ELO · Matches
35
1499.0
Current Team ELO
1387.3
1387.3
Current Opponent ELO
1499.0
111.7
Current ELO Difference
-111.7
0.66
Expected score
0.34
34
History Matches
35
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.16
49.45
Overperformance
40.09
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
2.20
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
35
1.50
PPG
0.60
44.1%
Win rate
11.4%
17.6%
Draw rate
25.7%
38.2%
Loss rate
62.9%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
17
1.31
PPG
0.59
37.5%
Win rate
11.8%
18.8%
Draw rate
23.5%
43.8%
Loss rate
64.7%
56.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
47.1%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
16
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
0.89
73.5%
Scoring rate
48.6%
41.2%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.13
Goals for per game
0.88
68.8%
Scoring rate
47.1%
31.3%
BTTS rate
41.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
34
History Matches
35
1.21
Goals Mean
0.89
1.02
Goals Std
1.06
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
48.6%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
5.7%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
2.20
61.8%
Conceding rate
94.3%
1.19
Goals against per game
2.29
56.3%
Conceding rate
94.1%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
34
History Matches
35
1.18
Conceded Mean
2.20
1.29
Conceded Std
1.55
32.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.7%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
2.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
5.7%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
51.4%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
52.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
5.7%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
51.4%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
52.9%
38.2%
Clean-sheet rate
5.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
35
0.94
Result entropy
0.81
1.65
Goal Difference Std
2.03
5.82
Stability score
19.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
34
11
Lead Matches
5
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
40.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.53
8
Trailing Matches
16
12.5%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.32
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.24
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.33
14
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.66
Portability PPG Range
0.77
60.42
Portability Score
56.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO111.7
PPG0.90
GF0.32
GA-1.02
PPG-0.33
PPG0.72
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate32.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate37.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.32
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate25.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.9%
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-1.02
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate32.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.33
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-13.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate41.8%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.11
Portability Score3.81
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.30
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Current Team ELO111.7
Current Opponent ELO-111.7
Current ELO Difference223.3
Expected score0.31
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance9.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rebel

L
Metalurh Zaporizhya1–0Rebel30 Oct · away
Pick: Metalurh Zaporizhya 47% · hit
W
Rebel3–0SC Poltava 225 Oct · home
Pick: SC Poltava 2 38% · missed
W
Rebel2–1Metalurh Zaporizhya29 Aug · home
Pick: Rebel 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Penuel

W
Penuel1–0Oleksandria II30 Oct · home
Pick: Oleksandria II 49% · missed
W
Penuel2–0Metalurh Zaporizhya25 Oct · home
Pick: Metalurh Zaporizhya 38% · missed
L
SC Poltava 23–0Penuel18 Oct · away
Pick: SC Poltava 2 57% · hit
L
Penuel1–8Karbon Cherkasy12 Oct · home
Pick: Karbon Cherkasy 50% · hit
L
Oleksandria II3–0Penuel30 Aug · away
Pick: Oleksandria II 56% · hit

About this match

Rebel and Penuel meet in Druha Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rebel win 43.6%, draw 24.4%, Penuel win 32.0%. The pick is Rebel win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.6%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.