ScoreProb
Druha Liga Ukraine Round 14 2026

Trostianets vs SC Poltava 2

Trostianets Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
SC Poltava 2 Away · Elo 1,513
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Trostianets win
Trostianets winPick
41.8%
Draw
30.2%
SC Poltava 2 win
28.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.3%
No56.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.4%
Under 2.555.6%

How much we know

Trostianets history40 matches
SC Poltava 2 history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Trostianets are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,518 against 1,513. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.35 goals a game over 40 matches for Trostianets, against 1.33 over 3 for SC Poltava 2.

  • SC Poltava 2 concede fewer

    Trostianets concede 0.98 a game, SC Poltava 2 0.33.

  • Trostianets games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Trostianets matches, against 33% for SC Poltava 2. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trostianets
SC Poltava 2
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.6
ELO
1513.2
40
ELO · Matches
3
1517.6
Current Team ELO
1513.2
1513.2
Current Opponent ELO
1517.6
4.46
Current ELO Difference
-4.46
0.51
Expected score
0.49
40
History Matches
3
0.02
Residual Mean
0.25
51.41
Overperformance
53.22
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
1.60
PPG
2.33
1.20
Goals for per game
1.33
0.80
Goals against per game
0.33
40.0%
Win rate
66.7%
10
Matches
3
1.20
PPG
2.33
1.20
Goals for per game
1.33
1.20
Goals against per game
0.33
30.0%
Win rate
66.7%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.33
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.47
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.61
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.82
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
3
1.55
PPG
2.33
42.5%
Win rate
66.7%
27.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
30.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
1
1.75
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
20
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.33
70.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
45.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.55
Goals for per game
2.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
45.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
40
History Matches
3
1.35
Goals Mean
1.33
1.19
Goals Std
0.94
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
0.33
65.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
40
History Matches
3
0.98
Conceded Mean
0.33
0.96
Conceded Std
0.47
22.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
3
0.98
Result entropy
0.58
1.64
Goal Difference Std
0.82
1.71
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
3
13
Lead Matches
2
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
1.00
9
Trailing Matches
0
22.2%
Non-loss rate
—
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.98
Rest days
83.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
19
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
19
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.33
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.35
Portability PPG Std
—
0.86
Portability PPG Range
—
58.74
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO4.46
PPG-0.78
GF0.02
GA0.64
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.25
PPG-0.73
PPG-1.13
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches37
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate40.0%
Failed-to-score rate20.0%
History Matches37
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate3.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate20.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches37
Conceded Mean0.64
Conceded Std0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Conceded 2+ rate22.5%
Conceded 3+ rate7.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches37
Result entropy0.40
Goal Difference Std0.82
Stability score-40.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.80
Eligible Matches34
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches9
Halftime Coverage Matches34
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-6.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.47
Long Rest History Matches18
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.32
Current Team ELO4.46
Current Opponent ELO-4.46
Current ELO Difference8.91
Expected score0.01
History Matches37
Residual Mean-0.23
Overperformance-1.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Trostianets

L
Karbon Cherkasy2–1Trostianets30 Oct · away
Pick: Karbon Cherkasy 35% · hit
D
Trostianets1–1Atlet24 Oct · home
Pick: Trostianets 56% · missed
L
Lozova1–0Trostianets17 Oct · away
Pick: Trostianets 58% · missed
W
Oleksandria II0–1Trostianets12 Oct · away
Pick: Oleksandria II 35% · missed
L
Trostianets2–4Chernihiv6 Oct · home
Pick: Trostianets 35% · missed

SC Poltava 2

L
Rebel3–0SC Poltava 225 Oct · away
Pick: SC Poltava 2 38% · missed
W
SC Poltava 23–0Penuel18 Oct · home
Pick: SC Poltava 2 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Trostianets and SC Poltava 2 meet in Druha Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Trostianets win 41.8%, draw 30.2%, SC Poltava 2 win 28.0%. The pick is Trostianets win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.4%. Both teams to score: 43.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.