ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Northern England Round 18 2026

Rylands vs Gainsborough Trinity

Rylands Home · Elo 1,532
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gainsborough Trinity Away · Elo 1,515
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gainsborough Trinity win
Rylands win
27.9%
Draw
24.2%
Gainsborough Trinity winPick
47.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%

How much we know

Rylands history68 matches
Gainsborough Trinity history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gainsborough Trinity are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,532 against 1,515. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.38 goals a game over 68 matches for Rylands, against 1.41 over 79 for Gainsborough Trinity.

  • Defences are close

    Rylands concede 1.24 a game, Gainsborough Trinity 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Rylands matches, against 47% for Gainsborough Trinity. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rylands
Gainsborough Trinity@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.6
ELO
1515.4
68
ELO · Matches
79
1531.6
Current Team ELO
1515.4
1515.4
Current Opponent ELO
1531.6
16.23
Current ELO Difference
-16.23
0.52
Expected score
0.48
68
History Matches
79
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
51.56
Overperformance
51.20
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
79
1.50
PPG
1.59
41.2%
Win rate
44.3%
26.5%
Draw rate
26.6%
32.4%
Loss rate
29.1%
77.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.2%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
36
1.70
PPG
1.58
48.5%
Win rate
44.4%
24.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
27.3%
Loss rate
30.6%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.1%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
33
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.38
Goals for per game
1.41
79.4%
Scoring rate
75.9%
52.9%
BTTS rate
54.4%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.47
84.8%
Scoring rate
83.3%
54.5%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
16.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
79
1.38
Goals Mean
1.41
1.11
Goals Std
1.09
79.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
35.3%
Scored 2+ rate
46.8%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
13.9%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.11
69.1%
Conceding rate
70.9%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.19
69.7%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
68
History Matches
79
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.14
Conceded Std
1.02
35.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.3%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
79
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.53
1.49
Stability score
2.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
78
25
Lead Matches
25
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.88
18
Trailing Matches
19
27.8%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
55
Normal Rest History Matches
64
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
9
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
1.67
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.69
Portability PPG Range
1.83
63.92
Portability Score
46.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO16.23
PPG-0.09
GF-0.02
GA0.12
PPG-0.67
PPG0.11
PPG-0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate3.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Conceded 2+ rate10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score-0.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.47
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate1.5%
Trailing Win Rate5.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-1.14
Portability Score17.23
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO16.23
Current Opponent ELO-16.23
Current ELO Difference32.47
Expected score0.05
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rylands

W
Ashton United1–2Rylands31 Oct · away
Pick: Ashton United 56% · missed
L
Rylands1–3Guiseley AFC24 Oct · home
Pick: Guiseley AFC 39% · hit
W
Rylands5–1Curzon Ashton13 Oct · home
Pick: Curzon Ashton 39% · missed
D
Leek Town3–3Rylands6 Oct · away
Pick: Leek Town 50% · missed
W
Rylands3–1Bamber Bridge31 Aug · home
Pick: Rylands 54% · hit

Gainsborough Trinity

D
Gainsborough Trinity1–1Bamber Bridge31 Oct · home
Pick: Gainsborough Trinity 67% · missed
L
Gainsborough Trinity0–3Curzon Ashton27 Oct · home
Pick: Gainsborough Trinity 57% · missed
W
Warrington Town1–2Gainsborough Trinity24 Oct · away
Pick: Warrington Town 36% · missed
W
Gainsborough Trinity4–0Hyde United17 Oct · home
Pick: Gainsborough Trinity 59% · hit
W
Gainsborough Trinity3–1Ilkeston Town13 Oct · home
Pick: Gainsborough Trinity 62% · hit

About this match

Rylands and Gainsborough Trinity meet in Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rylands win 27.9%, draw 24.2%, Gainsborough Trinity win 47.9%. The pick is Gainsborough Trinity win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.