ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

San Lorenzo vs Platense

San Lorenzo Home · Elo 1,503
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Platense Away · Elo 1,517
Estadio Pedro Bidegain, Buenos Aires Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: San Lorenzo win
San Lorenzo winPick
38.9%
Draw
37.6%
Platense win
23.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.3%
No58.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.534.2%
Under 2.565.8%

How much we know

San Lorenzo history58 matches
Platense history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why San Lorenzo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,503 against 1,517. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.83 goals a game over 58 matches for San Lorenzo, against 0.91 over 56 for Platense.

  • San Lorenzo concede fewer

    San Lorenzo concede 0.78 a game, Platense 1.00.

  • Platense games more often go over 2.5 goals

    21% of San Lorenzo matches, against 32% for Platense. The model puts this match at 34% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
San Lorenzo
Platense
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.6
ELO
1517.1
58
ELO · Matches
56
1502.6
Current Team ELO
1517.1
1517.1
Current Opponent ELO
1502.6
-14.53
Current ELO Difference
14.53
0.48
Expected score
0.52
58
History Matches
56
0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
50.42
Overperformance
51.16
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
0.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
0.60
Goals for per game
1.10
0.90
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
56
1.31
PPG
1.36
31.0%
Win rate
33.9%
37.9%
Draw rate
33.9%
31.0%
Loss rate
32.1%
44.8%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
20.7%
Over 2.5 rate
32.1%
8.6%
Over 3.5 rate
10.7%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
28
1.53
PPG
1.36
43.3%
Win rate
39.3%
23.3%
Draw rate
17.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
43.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
23.3%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
7.1%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.19
30
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.83
Goals for per game
0.91
56.9%
Scoring rate
64.3%
31.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.03
Goals for per game
0.93
63.3%
Scoring rate
67.9%
26.7%
BTTS rate
39.3%
0.72
Goals for per game
0.85
55.6%
Scoring rate
55.0%
27.8%
BTTS rate
45.0%
58
History Matches
56
0.83
Goals Mean
0.91
0.95
Goals Std
0.81
56.9%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
19.0%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
3.4%
Scored 3+ rate
1.8%
1.03
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.78
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
64.3%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
46.7%
Conceding rate
60.7%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
58
History Matches
56
0.78
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.98
Conceded Std
1.00
20.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
43.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
53.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
43.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
53.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
56
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.24
Goal Difference Std
1.20
0.42
Stability score
0.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
56
11
Lead Matches
10
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.73
14
Trailing Matches
11
21.4%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.32
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.92
Rest days
77.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
27
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
29
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
20
1.17
PPG
1.10
27.8%
Win rate
25.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
35.0%
38.9%
Loss rate
40.0%
38.9%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
16.7%
Over 2.5 rate
35.0%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
15.0%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
18
Current Competition Matches
20
1.17
Current Competition PPG
1.10
-0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.28
Portability PPG Range
0.47
79.02
Portability Score
71.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-14.53
PPG-0.05
GF-0.08
GA-0.22
PPG0.07
PPG0.18
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate14.0%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score0.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate3.6%
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.18
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score7.69
Rest days1.78
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO-14.53
Current Opponent ELO14.53
Current ELO Difference-29.06
Expected score-0.04
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

San Lorenzo

D
Velez Sarsfield2–2San Lorenzo31 Oct · away
Pick: Velez Sarsfield 48% · missed
D
San Lorenzo0–0Newells Old Boys24 Oct · home
Pick: San Lorenzo 51% · missed
L
Instituto Cordoba1–0San Lorenzo1 Sep · away
Pick: Instituto Cordoba 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Platense

W
Platense2–0Central Cordoba de Santiago2 Nov · home
Pick: Platense 45% · hit
W
Gimnasia M.1–2Platense23 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia M. 45% · missed
D
Velez Sarsfield2–2Platense5 Oct · away
Pick: Velez Sarsfield 51% · missed
L
Defensa Y Justicia1–0Platense31 Aug · away
Pick: Defensa Y Justicia 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

San Lorenzo and Platense meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Pedro Bidegain, Buenos Aires. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: San Lorenzo win 38.9%, draw 37.6%, Platense win 23.5%. The pick is San Lorenzo win. Over 2.5 goals: 34.2%. Both teams to score: 41.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.