ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Spain Group 12 - 10 2026

San Miguel vs Las Palmas III

San Miguel Home · Elo 1,523
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Las Palmas III Away · Elo 1,542
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Las Palmas III win
San Miguel win
32.5%
Draw
29.9%
Las Palmas III winPick
37.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.6%
No49.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%

How much we know

San Miguel history17 matches
Las Palmas III history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Las Palmas III are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,523 against 1,542. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Las Palmas III score more

    1.18 goals a game over 17 matches for San Miguel, against 1.76 over 33 for Las Palmas III.

  • San Miguel concede fewer

    San Miguel concede 0.82 a game, Las Palmas III 1.24.

  • Las Palmas III games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of San Miguel matches, against 45% for Las Palmas III. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
San Miguel
Las Palmas III
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1522.9
ELO
1542.0
17
ELO · Matches
33
1522.9
Current Team ELO
1542.0
1542.0
Current Opponent ELO
1522.9
-19.05
Current ELO Difference
19.05
0.47
Expected score
0.53
17
History Matches
33
0.07
Residual Mean
0.06
53.36
Overperformance
53.73
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
17
Matches
33
1.53
PPG
1.64
41.2%
Win rate
45.5%
29.4%
Draw rate
27.3%
29.4%
Loss rate
27.3%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
5.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
17
1.44
PPG
1.47
33.3%
Win rate
41.2%
44.4%
Draw rate
23.5%
22.2%
Loss rate
35.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
22.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
0.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
9
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.76
70.6%
Scoring rate
81.8%
41.2%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.59
77.8%
Scoring rate
76.5%
55.6%
BTTS rate
52.9%
17
History Matches
33
1.18
Goals Mean
1.76
1.04
Goals Std
1.60
70.6%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
39.4%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
24.2%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.82
Goals against per game
1.24
64.7%
Conceding rate
78.8%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.47
66.7%
Conceding rate
76.5%
17
History Matches
33
0.82
Conceded Mean
1.24
0.78
Conceded Std
0.99
11.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.3%
5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
17
History Matches
33
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.71
1.22
Stability score
2.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
17
Eligible Matches
32
5
Lead Matches
7
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
7
40.0%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
17
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.3
Rest days
181.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
10
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
6
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
17
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-19.05
PPG-0.11
GF-0.58
GA-0.42
PPG-0.03
PPG0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate11.2%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.58
Goals Std-0.55
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.42
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score-1.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.63
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.90
Current Team ELO-19.05
Current Opponent ELO19.05
Current ELO Difference-38.11
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance-0.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

San Miguel

W
San Bartolomé0–1San Miguel31 Oct · away
Pick: San Bartolomé 49% · missed
W
San Miguel5–0Villaverde Norte24 Oct · home
Pick: San Miguel 55% · hit
W
San Miguel3–0Estrella21 Oct · home
Pick: San Miguel 52% · hit
L
Panadería Pulido4–1San Miguel17 Oct · away
Pick: Panadería Pulido 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Las Palmas III

W
Las Palmas III3–0Anaza31 Oct · home
Pick: Las Palmas III 64% · hit
D
Tenerife C1–1Las Palmas III24 Oct · away
Pick: Las Palmas III 42% · missed
W
Las Palmas III3–0Laguna de Duero21 Oct · home
Pick: Las Palmas III 63% · hit
D
Las Palmas III2–2Mensajero17 Oct · home
Pick: Mensajero 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

San Miguel and Las Palmas III meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: San Miguel win 32.5%, draw 29.9%, Las Palmas III win 37.5%. The pick is Las Palmas III win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.6%. Both teams to score: 50.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.