ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Spain Group 12 - 10 2026

Unión Sur Yaiza vs Panadería Pulido

Unión Sur Yaiza Home · Elo 1,436
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Panadería Pulido Away · Elo 1,558
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Panadería Pulido win
Unión Sur Yaiza win
33.5%
Draw
31.2%
Panadería Pulido winPick
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.0%
Under 2.554.0%

How much we know

Unión Sur Yaiza history48 matches
Panadería Pulido history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Panadería Pulido are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Panadería Pulido are rated 123 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,436. On rating alone Panadería Pulido would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Panadería Pulido score far more

    0.85 goals a game over 48 matches for Unión Sur Yaiza, against 1.44 over 45 for Panadería Pulido.

  • Panadería Pulido concede fewer

    Unión Sur Yaiza concede 1.33 a game, Panadería Pulido 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Unión Sur Yaiza matches, against 47% for Panadería Pulido. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unión Sur Yaiza
Panadería Pulido
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1435.7
ELO
1558.4
48
ELO · Matches
45
1435.7
Current Team ELO
1558.4
1558.4
Current Opponent ELO
1435.7
-122.7
Current ELO Difference
122.7
0.33
Expected score
0.67
48
History Matches
45
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.06
45.77
Overperformance
53.85
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
0.90
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
45
0.92
PPG
1.71
20.8%
Win rate
46.7%
29.2%
Draw rate
31.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
22.2%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
24
1.28
PPG
1.79
36.0%
Win rate
50.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
44.0%
Loss rate
20.8%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
25
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.85
Goals for per game
1.44
45.8%
Scoring rate
80.0%
31.3%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.46
52.0%
Scoring rate
87.5%
24.0%
BTTS rate
58.3%
48
History Matches
45
0.85
Goals Mean
1.44
1.15
Goals Std
1.11
45.8%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
22.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
0.98
70.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.16
Goals against per game
0.92
64.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
48
History Matches
45
1.33
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.20
Conceded Std
0.88
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.4%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
54.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
48.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
54.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
48.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
45
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.42
6.00
Stability score
4.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
44
8
Lead Matches
16
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.79
14
Trailing Matches
7
7.1%
Non-loss rate
57.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.0
Rest days
167.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
19
0.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.50
68.46
Portability Score
66.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-122.7
PPG-0.79
GF-0.59
GA0.36
PPG-0.51
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate34.2%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate35.5%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.59
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.34
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.46
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score1.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.04
Portability Score1.92
Rest days14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.86
Current Team ELO-122.7
Current Opponent ELO122.7
Current ELO Difference-245.4
Expected score-0.34
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Unión Sur Yaiza

W
Playas Sotavento0–2Unión Sur Yaiza31 Oct · away
Pick: Playas Sotavento 39% · missed
W
Unión Sur Yaiza3–1Laguna de Duero24 Oct · home
Pick: Unión Sur Yaiza 61% · hit
W
Villaverde Norte0–1Unión Sur Yaiza21 Oct · away
Pick: Villaverde Norte 39% · missed
D
Real Unión de Tenerife1–1Unión Sur Yaiza17 Oct · away
Pick: Real Unión de Tenerife 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Panadería Pulido

W
Panadería Pulido5–0Villaverde Norte31 Oct · home
Pick: Panadería Pulido 67% · hit
D
Playas Sotavento1–1Panadería Pulido24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
W
Panadería Pulido4–1San Miguel17 Oct · home
Pick: Panadería Pulido 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Unión Sur Yaiza and Panadería Pulido meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Unión Sur Yaiza win 33.5%, draw 31.2%, Panadería Pulido win 35.3%. The pick is Panadería Pulido win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.0%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.