ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 Spain Group 12 - 10 2026

Tenerife C vs Los Llanos

Tenerife C Home · Elo 1,498
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Los Llanos Away · Elo 1,464
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tenerife C win
Tenerife C winPick
52.4%
Draw
26.0%
Los Llanos win
21.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.5%
No54.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.8%
Under 2.551.2%

How much we know

Tenerife C history29 matches
Los Llanos history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Tenerife C are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tenerife C are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,498 against 1,464. On rating alone Tenerife C would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Tenerife C score far more

    1.45 goals a game over 29 matches for Tenerife C, against 0.64 over 14 for Los Llanos.

  • Defences are close

    Tenerife C concede 1.45 a game, Los Llanos 1.57.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Tenerife C matches, against 50% for Los Llanos. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tenerife C
Los Llanos
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.0
ELO
1463.6
29
ELO · Matches
14
1498.0
Current Team ELO
1463.6
1463.6
Current Opponent ELO
1498.0
34.46
Current ELO Difference
-34.46
0.55
Expected score
0.45
29
History Matches
14
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.13
49.88
Overperformance
44.65
-0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
0.70
0.50
Goals for per game
0.50
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
29
Matches
14
1.48
PPG
1.00
37.9%
Win rate
28.6%
34.5%
Draw rate
14.3%
27.6%
Loss rate
57.1%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
7.1%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
7
1.47
PPG
0.57
40.0%
Win rate
14.3%
26.7%
Draw rate
14.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
71.4%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
15
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
0.64
69.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
51.7%
BTTS rate
28.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.29
66.7%
Scoring rate
28.6%
46.7%
BTTS rate
14.3%
29
History Matches
14
1.45
Goals Mean
0.64
1.52
Goals Std
0.72
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
34.5%
Scored 2+ rate
14.3%
20.7%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.45
Goals against per game
1.57
75.9%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.86
80.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
29
History Matches
14
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.25
Conceded Std
1.29
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
71.4%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
71.4%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
29
History Matches
14
0.99
Result entropy
0.87
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.79
0.77
Stability score
13.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
14
9
Lead Matches
2
55.6%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
4
28.6%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.21
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.2
Rest days
545.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
15
Normal Rest History Matches
7
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
12
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
29
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.46
PPG0.48
GF0.81
GA-0.12
PPG0.90
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.81
Goals Std0.80
Scored 1+ rate19.0%
Scored 2+ rate20.2%
Scored 3+ rate20.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches15
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score-12.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.44
Lead Points Retention-0.30
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate28.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-364.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.25
Current Team ELO34.46
Current Opponent ELO-34.46
Current ELO Difference68.93
Expected score0.10
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance5.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tenerife C

L
UD San Fernando2–0Tenerife C1 Nov · away
Pick: UD San Fernando 60% · hit
D
Tenerife C1–1Las Palmas III24 Oct · home
Pick: Las Palmas III 42% · missed
W
Tenerife C2–1Villa Santa Brígida21 Oct · home
Pick: Villa Santa Brígida 42% · missed
W
San Bartolomé2–4Tenerife C17 Oct · away
Pick: San Bartolomé 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Los Llanos

W
Los Llanos3–1Mensajero31 Oct · home
Pick: Mensajero 48% · missed
L
Villa Santa Brígida1–0Los Llanos24 Oct · away
Pick: Villa Santa Brígida 63% · hit
L
Los Llanos1–2Marino21 Oct · home
Pick: Marino 36% · hit
W
Los Llanos3–0Lanzarote17 Oct · home
Pick: Lanzarote 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tenerife C and Los Llanos meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Tenerife C win 52.4%, draw 26.0%, Los Llanos win 21.6%. The pick is Tenerife C win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.8%. Both teams to score: 45.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.