Sanluqueño vs Real Betis II
Match result probability Model pick: Sanluqueño win
Sanluqueño winPick
38.7%
Draw
27.7%
Real Betis II win
33.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.1%
No50.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.7%
Under 2.551.3%
How much we know
Sanluqueño history57 matches
Real Betis II history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Sanluqueño
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.7%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Sanluqueño are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Real Betis II are rated 79 Elo points higher
Elo 1,489 against 1,410. On rating alone Real Betis II would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Real Betis II score more
0.82 goals a game over 57 matches for Sanluqueño, against 1.14 over 57 for Real Betis II.
-
Sanluqueño concede fewer
Sanluqueño concede 1.33 a game, Real Betis II 1.60.
-
Real Betis II games more often go over 2.5 goals
35% of Sanluqueño matches, against 56% for Real Betis II. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Betis II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1409.6
ELO
1488.5
57
ELO · Matches
57
1409.6
Current Team ELO
1488.5
1488.5
Current Opponent ELO
1409.6
-78.95
Current ELO Difference
78.95
0.39
Expected score
0.61
57
History Matches
57
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
44.57
Overperformance
49.29
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.00
0.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
2.00
0.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals 90
57
Matches
57
0.98
PPG
1.12
22.8%
Win rate
28.1%
29.8%
Draw rate
28.1%
47.4%
Loss rate
43.9%
59.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.2%
35.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.1%
22.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
29
1.17
PPG
1.00
26.7%
Win rate
20.7%
36.7%
Draw rate
37.9%
36.7%
Loss rate
41.4%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
30
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.82
Goals for per game
1.14
52.6%
Scoring rate
68.4%
38.6%
BTTS rate
57.9%
0.93
Goals for per game
1.03
63.3%
Scoring rate
62.1%
46.7%
BTTS rate
55.2%
57
History Matches
57
0.82
Goals Mean
1.14
0.99
Goals Std
1.00
52.6%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
19.3%
Scored 2+ rate
35.1%
8.8%
Scored 3+ rate
8.8%
0.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.60
68.4%
Conceding rate
80.7%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.62
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.9%
57
History Matches
57
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.22
Conceded Std
1.27
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.5%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
57
History Matches
57
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.66
4.25
Stability score
2.17
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
57
12
Lead Matches
12
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.83
19
Trailing Matches
20
15.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
175.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.03
24
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.42
Portability PPG Range
0.30
70.45
Portability Score
77.20
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
57
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-78.95
PPG-0.14
GF-0.32
GA-0.26
PPG0.17
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.32
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score2.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-6.75
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Current Team ELO-78.95
Current Opponent ELO78.95
Current ELO Difference-157.9
Expected score-0.22
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.48
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Sanluqueño
L
Ciudad de Lucena2–1Sanluqueño1 Nov · away
Pick: Ciudad de Lucena 46% · hit W
Sanluqueño4–1Las Palmas II25 Oct · home
Pick: Sanluqueño 42% · hit L
Badajoz1–0Sanluqueño18 Oct · away
Pick: Badajoz 60% · hit D
Sanluqueño2–2Mijas Las Lagunas4 Oct · home
Pick: Sanluqueño 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Real Betis II
L
Real Betis II0–2Recreativo Huelva1 Nov · home
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 43% · hit D
Mijas Las Lagunas1–1Real Betis II24 Oct · away
Pick: Mijas Las Lagunas 47% · missed L
Tamaraceite3–2Real Betis II18 Oct · away
Pick: Tamaraceite 45% · hit W
Marbella0–2Real Betis II4 Oct · away
Pick: Real Betis II 37% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Sanluqueño and Real Betis II meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio El Palmar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sanluqueño win 38.7%, draw 27.7%, Real Betis II win 33.6%. The pick is Sanluqueño win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.7%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.