ScoreProb
Premier League Armenia Round 13 2026

Sardarapat vs Ararat

Sardarapat Home · Elo 1,655
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ararat Away · Elo 1,420
Armavir stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sardarapat win
Sardarapat winPick
78.6%
Draw
12.2%
Ararat win
9.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.3%
Under 2.528.7%

How much we know

Sardarapat history37 matches
Ararat history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (78.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Sardarapat are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sardarapat are rated 235 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,655 against 1,420. On rating alone Sardarapat would be expected to take 79% of the points on offer.

  • Sardarapat score far more

    2.49 goals a game over 37 matches for Sardarapat, against 1.09 over 53 for Ararat.

  • Sardarapat concede fewer

    Sardarapat concede 0.73 a game, Ararat 2.06.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Sardarapat matches, against 58% for Ararat. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sardarapat
Ararat
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1655.2
ELO
1420.1
37
ELO · Matches
53
1655.2
Current Team ELO
1420.1
1420.1
Current Opponent ELO
1655.2
235.1
Current ELO Difference
-235.1
0.79
Expected score
0.21
37
History Matches
53
0.20
Residual Mean
-0.07
62.97
Overperformance
44.83
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.90
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.04
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
53
2.38
PPG
0.91
73.0%
Win rate
24.5%
18.9%
Draw rate
17.0%
8.1%
Loss rate
58.5%
89.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.0%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.2%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
26
2.29
PPG
0.85
70.6%
Win rate
26.9%
17.6%
Draw rate
3.8%
11.8%
Loss rate
69.2%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
17
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.49
Goals for per game
1.09
91.9%
Scoring rate
60.4%
54.1%
BTTS rate
49.1%
2.59
Goals for per game
1.08
88.2%
Scoring rate
53.8%
41.2%
BTTS rate
42.3%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
37
History Matches
53
2.49
Goals Mean
1.09
1.54
Goals Std
1.14
91.9%
Scored 1+ rate
60.4%
67.6%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
48.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
2.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.73
Goals against per game
2.06
56.8%
Conceding rate
86.8%
0.71
Goals against per game
2.62
47.1%
Conceding rate
88.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
53
0.73
Conceded Mean
2.06
0.76
Conceded Std
1.66
13.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.6%
2.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.3%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
2.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
8.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.6%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
8.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.6%
52.9%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
53
0.68
Result entropy
0.87
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.09
31.86
Stability score
12.66
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
51
25
Lead Matches
3
92.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.67
1
Trailing Matches
21
0.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
1.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.24
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.75
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
18
Normal Rest History Matches
20
2.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.95
17
Long Rest History Matches
28
2.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
2.33
PPG
0.75
66.7%
Win rate
25.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
3
Current Competition Matches
4
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.75
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
4
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.20
Portability PPG Range
1.52
83.33
Portability Score
49.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO235.1
PPG1.47
GF1.39
GA-1.33
PPG1.58
PPG1.45
PPG0.60
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate30.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate41.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.34
History Matches-16
Goals Mean1.39
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate31.5%
Scored 2+ rate33.6%
Scored 3+ rate37.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-1.33
Conceded Std-0.91
Clean-sheet rate30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.43
Conceded 3+ rate-0.26
Venue Conceded Mean-1.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.59
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.19
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score19.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches22
Lead Win Rate25.3%
Lead Points Retention0.28
Trailing Matches-20
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean1.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.72
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.58
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.32
Portability Score33.60
Rest days-2.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.55
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match1.39
Current Team ELO235.1
Current Opponent ELO-235.1
Current ELO Difference470.1
Expected score0.59
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.27
Overperformance18.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sardarapat

D
Sardarapat2–2Van30 Oct · home
Pick: Sardarapat 71% · missed
W
Gandzasar1–2Sardarapat16 Oct · away
Pick: Sardarapat 69% · hit
L
Sardarapat2–4Pyunik Yerevan9 Sep · home
Pick: Pyunik Yerevan 45% · hit
W
Sardarapat3–1Syunik31 Aug · home
Pick: Sardarapat 60% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ararat

L
Ararat0–2Alashkert31 Oct · home
Pick: Alashkert 64% · hit
L
Pyunik Yerevan6–2Ararat27 Oct · away
Pick: Pyunik Yerevan 64% · hit
L
Van2–1Ararat23 Oct · away
Pick: Van 42% · hit
D
Ararat1–1Shirak17 Oct · home
Pick: Ararat 46% · missed
L
FC Noah4–0Ararat30 Aug · away
Pick: FC Noah 74% · hit

About this match

Sardarapat and Ararat meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Armavir stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Sardarapat win 78.6%, draw 12.2%, Ararat win 9.2%. The pick is Sardarapat win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.3%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.