ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone G Italy Group G - 11 2026

Sarrabus Ogliastra vs Paganese

Sarrabus Ogliastra Home · Elo 1,491
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Paganese Away · Elo 1,551
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Paganese win
Sarrabus Ogliastra win
31.1%
Draw
26.9%
Paganese winPick
41.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.2%
No48.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Sarrabus Ogliastra history49 matches
Paganese history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Paganese are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Paganese are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,491. On rating alone Paganese would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Sarrabus Ogliastra score more

    1.35 goals a game over 49 matches for Sarrabus Ogliastra, against 1.08 over 51 for Paganese.

  • Paganese concede fewer

    Sarrabus Ogliastra concede 1.53 a game, Paganese 0.92.

  • Sarrabus Ogliastra games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Sarrabus Ogliastra matches, against 27% for Paganese. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sarrabus Ogliastra
Paganese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.8
ELO
1551.3
49
ELO · Matches
51
1490.8
Current Team ELO
1551.3
1551.3
Current Opponent ELO
1490.8
-60.50
Current ELO Difference
60.50
0.41
Expected score
0.59
49
History Matches
51
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
49.52
Overperformance
53.39
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
0.90
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
51
1.31
PPG
1.65
34.7%
Win rate
47.1%
26.5%
Draw rate
23.5%
38.8%
Loss rate
29.4%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
54.9%
59.2%
Over 2.5 rate
27.5%
38.8%
Over 3.5 rate
15.7%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
26
1.56
PPG
1.46
44.0%
Win rate
42.3%
24.0%
Draw rate
19.2%
32.0%
Loss rate
38.5%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.35
Goals for per game
1.08
71.4%
Scoring rate
72.5%
51.0%
BTTS rate
37.3%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.00
72.0%
Scoring rate
73.1%
48.0%
BTTS rate
42.3%
49
History Matches
51
1.35
Goals Mean
1.08
1.13
Goals Std
1.04
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
19.6%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
0.92
73.5%
Conceding rate
58.8%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.15
68.0%
Conceding rate
69.2%
49
History Matches
51
1.53
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.21
Conceded Std
1.12
51.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
19.6%
22.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.8%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
51
0.99
Result entropy
0.96
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.70
1.09
Stability score
3.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
51
10
Lead Matches
19
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.81
15
Trailing Matches
12
33.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
189.0
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.97
16
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.07
Portability PPG Range
0.15
93.70
Portability Score
86.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-60.50
PPG-0.34
GF0.27
GA0.61
PPG0.10
PPG-0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate21.2%
Scored 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.39
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.61
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate31.4%
Conceded 3+ rate14.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.85
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-2.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.41
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score6.80
Rest days14.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Current Team ELO-60.50
Current Opponent ELO60.50
Current ELO Difference-121.0
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sarrabus Ogliastra

W
Sarrabus Ogliastra3–0Gelbison25 Oct · home
Pick: Gelbison 47% · missed
L
Trastevere3–2Sarrabus Ogliastra18 Oct · away
Pick: Trastevere 49% · hit
L
Latte Dolce3–0Sarrabus Ogliastra7 Oct · away
Pick: Latte Dolce 44% · hit
L
Latte Dolce1–0Sarrabus Ogliastra4 Oct · away
Pick: Latte Dolce 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Paganese

L
Città di Anagni2–1Paganese25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
L
Venafro1–0Paganese18 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
L
Sarnese2–1Paganese4 Oct · away
Pick: Sarnese 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sarrabus Ogliastra and Paganese meet in Serie D - Girone G on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sarrabus Ogliastra win 31.1%, draw 26.9%, Paganese win 41.9%. The pick is Paganese win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 51.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.