ScoreProb
Frauen Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

SC Freiburg W vs Nürnberg W

SC Freiburg W Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nürnberg W Away · Elo 1,453
Dreisamstadion, Freiburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SC Freiburg W win
SC Freiburg W winPick
60.2%
Draw
17.1%
Nürnberg W win
22.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.1%
No38.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.9%
Under 2.530.1%

How much we know

SC Freiburg W history38 matches
Nürnberg W history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why SC Freiburg W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SC Freiburg W are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,453. On rating alone SC Freiburg W would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.58 goals a game over 38 matches for SC Freiburg W, against 1.58 over 38 for Nürnberg W.

  • SC Freiburg W concede fewer

    SC Freiburg W concede 1.63 a game, Nürnberg W 2.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of SC Freiburg W matches, against 68% for Nürnberg W. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SC Freiburg W
Nürnberg W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.6
ELO
1452.5
38
ELO · Matches
38
1500.6
Current Team ELO
1452.5
1452.5
Current Opponent ELO
1500.6
48.12
Current ELO Difference
-48.12
0.57
Expected score
0.43
38
History Matches
38
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.05
49.70
Overperformance
46.64
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.11
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
38
1.39
PPG
1.24
39.5%
Win rate
36.8%
21.1%
Draw rate
13.2%
39.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
86.8%
Over 1.5 rate
92.1%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
17
1.83
PPG
0.94
55.6%
Win rate
23.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
23.5%
27.8%
Loss rate
52.9%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
18
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.58
81.6%
Scoring rate
73.7%
60.5%
BTTS rate
65.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.12
88.9%
Scoring rate
70.6%
66.7%
BTTS rate
70.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
38
History Matches
38
1.58
Goals Mean
1.58
1.33
Goals Std
1.55
81.6%
Scored 1+ rate
73.7%
42.1%
Scored 2+ rate
36.8%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
26.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
2.21
73.7%
Conceding rate
92.1%
1.61
Goals against per game
2.12
72.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
8.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
38
History Matches
38
1.63
Conceded Mean
2.21
1.37
Conceded Std
1.72
47.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.9%
28.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.6%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
2.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
7.9%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
7.9%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
7.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
38
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
2.04
Goal Difference Std
2.58
3.34
Stability score
10.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
38
12
Lead Matches
9
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.81
13
Trailing Matches
18
15.4%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.24
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.77
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-6.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.78
0.49
Portability PPG Range
1.55
67.01
Portability Score
39.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO48.12
PPG0.16
GF0.00
GA-0.58
PPG1.00
PPG0.89
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate27.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate5.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.58
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.92
History Matches0
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.54
Stability score-7.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.69
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate2.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean6.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.53
Portability PPG Range-1.06
Portability Score27.85
Rest days-1.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO48.12
Current Opponent ELO-48.12
Current ELO Difference96.25
Expected score0.14
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SC Freiburg W

W
SC Freiburg W4–0Carl Zeiss Jena W1 Nov · home
Pick: SC Freiburg W 45% · hit
L
Werder Bremen W4–3SC Freiburg W25 Oct · away
Pick: Werder Bremen W 54% · hit
L
SC Freiburg W0–3RB Leipzig W16 Oct · home
Pick: SC Freiburg W 57% · missed
W
SC Freiburg W1–0Union Berlin W29 Aug · home
Pick: Union Berlin W 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nürnberg W

W
Nürnberg W2–0Bayer Leverkusen W25 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen W 65% · missed
L
Union Berlin W2–1Nürnberg W18 Oct · away
Pick: Union Berlin W 62% · hit
L
Nürnberg W1–21899 Hoffenheim W4 Oct · home
Pick: 1899 Hoffenheim W 66% · hit
D
Eintracht Frankfurt W1–1Nürnberg W30 Aug · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt W 84% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

SC Freiburg W and Nürnberg W meet in Frauen Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Dreisamstadion, Freiburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: SC Freiburg W win 60.2%, draw 17.1%, Nürnberg W win 22.8%. The pick is SC Freiburg W win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.9%. Both teams to score: 61.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.