ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone C Italy Girone C - 13 2026

Scafatese vs Audace Cerignola

Scafatese Home · Elo 1,718
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Audace Cerignola Away · Elo 1,535
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Audace Cerignola win
Scafatese win
36.1%
Draw
24.0%
Audace Cerignola winPick
39.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%

How much we know

Scafatese history59 matches
Audace Cerignola history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Audace Cerignola are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Scafatese are rated 183 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,718 against 1,535. On rating alone Scafatese would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Scafatese score far more

    2.12 goals a game over 59 matches for Scafatese, against 1.35 over 62 for Audace Cerignola.

  • Scafatese concede fewer

    Scafatese concede 0.78 a game, Audace Cerignola 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Scafatese matches, against 47% for Audace Cerignola. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Scafatese
Audace Cerignola
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1718.3
ELO
1535.1
59
ELO · Matches
62
1718.3
Current Team ELO
1535.1
1535.1
Current Opponent ELO
1718.3
183.3
Current ELO Difference
-183.3
0.74
Expected score
0.26
59
History Matches
62
0.18
Residual Mean
0.03
63.31
Overperformance
52.53
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
3.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.40
2.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
62
2.34
PPG
1.52
71.2%
Win rate
40.3%
20.3%
Draw rate
30.6%
8.5%
Loss rate
29.0%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
2.46
PPG
1.24
75.0%
Win rate
31.0%
21.4%
Draw rate
31.0%
3.6%
Loss rate
37.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.12
Goals for per game
1.35
91.5%
Scoring rate
77.4%
52.5%
BTTS rate
54.8%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.03
92.9%
Scoring rate
69.0%
53.6%
BTTS rate
48.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
62
2.12
Goals Mean
1.35
1.26
Goals Std
1.12
91.5%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
66.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
35.6%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
2.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.78
Goals against per game
1.31
54.2%
Conceding rate
66.1%
0.71
Goals against per game
1.34
53.6%
Conceding rate
65.5%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
62
0.78
Conceded Mean
1.31
0.88
Conceded Std
1.28
16.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.1%
6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.7%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
8.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
8.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
62
0.71
Result entropy
0.99
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.63
29.45
Stability score
0.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
62
26
Lead Matches
14
96.2%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.90
7
Trailing Matches
14
57.1%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
43
Normal Rest History Matches
36
2.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
15
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
7
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.49
Portability PPG Range
1.40
70.80
Portability Score
46.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO183.3
PPG0.82
GF0.76
GA-0.53
PPG-2.00
PPG1.22
PPG0.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.76
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate14.1%
Scored 2+ rate29.0%
Scored 3+ rate21.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.87
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.53
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.28
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score28.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.78
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate10.4%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate28.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.92
Portability Score24.21
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.67
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match1.21
Current Team ELO183.3
Current Opponent ELO-183.3
Current ELO Difference366.5
Expected score0.48
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Scafatese

D
Bari1–1Scafatese31 Oct · away
Pick: Bari 50% · missed
L
Inter U232–1Scafatese27 Oct · away
Pick: Inter U23 42% · hit
W
Scafatese1–0Barletta24 Oct · home
Pick: Scafatese 54% · hit
D
Salernitana2–2Scafatese17 Oct · away
Pick: Salernitana 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Audace Cerignola

W
Audace Cerignola1–0Catania31 Oct · home
Pick: Audace Cerignola 48% · hit
L
SS Monopoli2–0Audace Cerignola25 Oct · away
Pick: Audace Cerignola 39% · missed
W
Audace Cerignola4–0Savoia18 Oct · home
Pick: Audace Cerignola 57% · hit
D
Audace Cerignola0–0Team Altamura4 Oct · home
Pick: Audace Cerignola 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Scafatese and Audace Cerignola meet in Serie C - Girone C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Scafatese win 36.1%, draw 24.0%, Audace Cerignola win 39.9%. The pick is Audace Cerignola win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.