Schwarz-Weiß Rehden vs Meppen II
Match result probability Model pick: Schwarz-Weiß Rehden win
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden winPick
53.6%
Draw
21.6%
Meppen II win
24.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
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Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.6%
No40.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%
How much we know
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden history53 matches
Meppen II history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Schwarz-Weiß Rehden
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Schwarz-Weiß Rehden are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden are rated 32 Elo points higher
Elo 1,532 against 1,501. On rating alone Schwarz-Weiß Rehden would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.74 goals a game over 53 matches for Schwarz-Weiß Rehden, against 1.58 over 48 for Meppen II.
-
Meppen II concede fewer
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden concede 1.62 a game, Meppen II 1.42.
-
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden games more often go over 2.5 goals
68% of Schwarz-Weiß Rehden matches, against 48% for Meppen II. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Meppen II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1532.3
ELO
1500.5
53
ELO · Matches
48
1532.3
Current Team ELO
1500.5
1500.5
Current Opponent ELO
1532.3
31.77
Current ELO Difference
-31.77
0.55
Expected score
0.45
53
History Matches
48
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.58
Overperformance
50.21
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.28
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.30
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
48
1.47
PPG
1.48
41.5%
Win rate
39.6%
22.6%
Draw rate
29.2%
35.8%
Loss rate
31.3%
86.8%
Over 1.5 rate
85.4%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
23
1.21
PPG
1.52
33.3%
Win rate
39.1%
20.8%
Draw rate
34.8%
45.8%
Loss rate
26.1%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
91.3%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.74
Goals for per game
1.58
81.1%
Scoring rate
81.3%
66.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.43
75.0%
Scoring rate
82.6%
66.7%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
53
History Matches
48
1.74
Goals Mean
1.58
1.51
Goals Std
1.22
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
47.9%
22.6%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.62
Goals against per game
1.42
77.4%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.30
79.2%
Conceding rate
73.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
48
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.43
Conceded Std
1.19
47.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
48
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.71
2.69
Stability score
0.81
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
50
Eligible Matches
48
13
Lead Matches
17
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.82
16
Trailing Matches
11
25.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.00
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.34
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
1.67
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.67
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.66
Portability PPG Std
0.61
1.60
Portability PPG Range
1.36
42.98
Portability Score
45.18
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.77
PPG-0.01
GF0.15
GA0.21
PPG1.33
PPG-0.31
PPG1.20
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate7.6%
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate1.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.24
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Conceded 2+ rate11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score1.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.71
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate8.1%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-2.20
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO31.77
Current Opponent ELO-31.77
Current ELO Difference63.54
Expected score0.09
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.51
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden
L
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden1–3Heeslinger SC30 Oct · home
Pick: Heeslinger SC 44% · hit D
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden1–1Wilhelmshaven16 Oct · home
Pick: Wilhelmshaven 40% · missed W
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden4–1Nordhorn29 Aug · home
Pick: Schwarz-Weiß Rehden 75% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Meppen II
W
Borussia Hildesheim3–5Meppen II31 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Hildesheim 39% · missed D
Meppen II2–2Drochtersen/Assel II25 Oct · home
Pick: Meppen II 52% · missed W
Verden 041–2Meppen II18 Oct · away
Pick: Verden 04 48% · missed W
Nordhorn1–3Meppen II4 Oct · away
Pick: Nordhorn 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Schwarz-Weiß Rehden and Meppen II meet in Oberliga - Niedersachsen on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Schwarz-Weiß Rehden win 53.6%, draw 21.6%, Meppen II win 24.8%. The pick is Schwarz-Weiß Rehden win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.6%. Both teams to score: 59.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.