ScoreProb
Persian Gulf Pro League Iran Round 12 2026

Shams Azar Qazvin vs Sanat Naft

Shams Azar Qazvin Home · Elo 1,443
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sanat Naft Away · Elo 1,561
Sardar Azadegan Stadium, Qazvin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Shams Azar Qazvin win
34.9%
DrawPick
37.0%
Sanat Naft win
28.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.1%
No57.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.535.6%
Under 2.564.4%

How much we know

Shams Azar Qazvin history41 matches
Sanat Naft history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sanat Naft are rated 118 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,443. On rating alone Sanat Naft would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Sanat Naft score more

    0.83 goals a game over 41 matches for Shams Azar Qazvin, against 0.93 over 55 for Sanat Naft.

  • Sanat Naft concede fewer

    Shams Azar Qazvin concede 1.15 a game, Sanat Naft 0.58.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    24% of Shams Azar Qazvin matches, against 22% for Sanat Naft. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shams Azar Qazvin
Sanat Naft
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1442.8
ELO
1560.7
41
ELO · Matches
55
1442.8
Current Team ELO
1560.7
1560.7
Current Opponent ELO
1442.8
-117.9
Current ELO Difference
117.9
0.34
Expected score
0.66
41
History Matches
55
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.05
46.44
Overperformance
53.81
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.60
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
0.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
55
0.95
PPG
1.64
17.1%
Win rate
41.8%
43.9%
Draw rate
38.2%
39.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
53.7%
Over 1.5 rate
47.3%
24.4%
Over 2.5 rate
21.8%
19.5%
Over 3.5 rate
7.3%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
28
0.96
PPG
1.21
16.7%
Win rate
25.0%
45.8%
Draw rate
46.4%
37.5%
Loss rate
28.6%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
32.1%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
14.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
3.6%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
24
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.83
Goals for per game
0.93
51.2%
Scoring rate
56.4%
43.9%
BTTS rate
29.1%
1.04
Goals for per game
0.57
62.5%
Scoring rate
32.1%
58.3%
BTTS rate
17.9%
0.67
Goals for per game
0.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
41
History Matches
55
0.83
Goals Mean
0.93
1.06
Goals Std
1.04
51.2%
Scored 1+ rate
56.4%
17.1%
Scored 2+ rate
25.5%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
7.3%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
0.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
0.58
73.2%
Conceding rate
45.5%
1.42
Goals against per game
0.54
83.3%
Conceding rate
42.9%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
41
History Matches
55
1.15
Conceded Mean
0.58
1.03
Conceded Std
0.73
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
10.9%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.8%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
0.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
54.5%
48.8%
Failed-to-score rate
43.6%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
67.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
54.5%
48.8%
Failed-to-score rate
43.6%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
67.9%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
54.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
55
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.09
Goal Difference Std
1.27
6.21
Stability score
4.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
55
1
Lead Matches
6
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
11
Trailing Matches
8
36.4%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.22
First Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.22
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
73.88
Rest days
72.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.89
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.59
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
0.67
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.62
Portability PPG Range
1.33
63.60
Portability Score
49.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-117.9
PPG-0.69
GF-0.10
GA0.56
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.26
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.40
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean0.56
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.28
Conceded 2+ rate15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.88
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score2.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate23.9%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.71
Portability Score13.76
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-117.9
Current Opponent ELO117.9
Current ELO Difference-235.7
Expected score-0.33
History Matches-14
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shams Azar Qazvin

L
Esteghlal Khuzestan2–0Shams Azar Qazvin25 Oct · away
Pick: Esteghlal Khuzestan 35% · hit
D
Shams Azar Qazvin0–0Sepahan FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Sepahan FC 41% · missed
D
Shams Azar Qazvin0–0Tractor Sazi1 Sep · home
Pick: Tractor Sazi 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sanat Naft

L
Tractor Sazi3–0Sanat Naft22 Oct · away
Pick: Tractor Sazi 58% · hit
W
Sanat Naft2–1Aluminium Arak17 Oct · home
Pick: Sanat Naft 34% · hit
D
Mes Shahr-e Babak0–0Sanat Naft29 Aug · away
Pick: Mes Shahr-e Babak 38% · missed
L
Sanat Naft0–3Foolad FC24 Aug · home
Pick: Sanat Naft 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Shams Azar Qazvin and Sanat Naft meet in Persian Gulf Pro League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Sardar Azadegan Stadium, Qazvin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Shams Azar Qazvin win 34.9%, draw 37.0%, Sanat Naft win 28.1%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 35.6%. Both teams to score: 42.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.