ScoreProb
UEFA Champions League World Round 4 2026

Slavia Praha vs Arsenal

Slavia Praha Home · Elo 1,672
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arsenal Away · Elo 1,731
Sinobo Stadium, Prague Referee: Tobias Stieler Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arsenal win
Slavia Praha win
29.9%
Draw
25.8%
Arsenal winPick
44.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%

How much we know

Slavia Praha history80 matches
Arsenal history97 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Arsenal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arsenal are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,731 against 1,672. On rating alone Arsenal would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.99 goals a game over 80 matches for Slavia Praha, against 1.92 over 97 for Arsenal.

  • Arsenal concede fewer

    Slavia Praha concede 1.03 a game, Arsenal 0.82.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Slavia Praha matches, against 54% for Arsenal. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Slavia Praha
Arsenal
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1672.2
ELO
1731.1
80
ELO · Matches
97
1672.2
Current Team ELO
1731.1
1731.1
Current Opponent ELO
1672.2
-58.90
Current ELO Difference
58.90
0.42
Expected score
0.58
80
History Matches
97
0.11
Residual Mean
0.12
59.07
Overperformance
60.22
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.40
2.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.90
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
97
2.01
PPG
2.09
58.8%
Win rate
62.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.6%
16.3%
Loss rate
16.5%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
45
2.23
PPG
2.07
68.2%
Win rate
60.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
26.7%
13.6%
Loss rate
13.3%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
65.9%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
44
History Matches
45
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.99
Goals for per game
1.92
83.8%
Scoring rate
89.7%
51.3%
BTTS rate
50.5%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.89
84.1%
Scoring rate
91.1%
47.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
80
History Matches
97
1.99
Goals Mean
1.92
1.36
Goals Std
1.31
83.8%
Scored 1+ rate
89.7%
63.8%
Scored 2+ rate
56.7%
32.5%
Scored 3+ rate
27.8%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.03
Goals against per game
0.82
58.8%
Conceding rate
56.7%
0.95
Goals against per game
0.87
54.5%
Conceding rate
64.4%
80
History Matches
97
1.03
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.13
Conceded Std
0.86
26.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.6%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.1%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
0.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.3%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
8.9%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.3%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
8.9%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
97
0.87
Result entropy
0.83
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.61
13.13
Stability score
16.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
97
33
Lead Matches
48
78.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.4%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.90
14
Trailing Matches
15
50.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
97
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.08
Rest days
75.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
14
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
51
Normal Rest History Matches
70
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.97
24
Long Rest History Matches
12
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
13
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.37
2.13
Portability PPG Range
1.13
39.65
Portability Score
57.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
97
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-58.90
PPG-0.08
GF0.07
GA0.20
PPG0.16
PPG0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Failed-to-score rate7.0%
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate7.0%
Scored 3+ rate4.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.36
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate4.6%
Conceded 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score-3.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-15
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate14.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.39
Portability PPG Range0.99
Portability Score-17.76
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-10
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO-58.90
Current Opponent ELO58.90
Current ELO Difference-117.8
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Slavia Praha

W
FK Jablonec0–5Slavia Praha31 Oct · away
Pick: Slavia Praha 43% · hit
W
Slavia Praha4–0Zbrojovka Brno27 Oct · home
Pick: Slavia Praha 52% · hit
D
Slavia Praha1–1Mlada Boleslav24 Oct · home
Pick: Slavia Praha 57% · missed
D
Fenerbahçe2–2Slavia Praha20 Oct · away
Pick: Fenerbahçe 48% · missed
D
Slavia Praha0–0Hradec Králové17 Oct · home
Pick: Slavia Praha 56% · missed

Arsenal

W
Liverpool0–1Arsenal1 Nov · away
Pick: Arsenal 49% · hit
W
Arsenal2–0Everton24 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal 57% · hit
D
Bayern München2–2Arsenal21 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal 38% · missed
W
Nottingham Forest0–1Arsenal18 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal 54% · hit
W
Arsenal3–0Lille13 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal 58% · hit

About this match

Slavia Praha and Arsenal meet in UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Sinobo Stadium, Prague. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Slavia Praha win 29.9%, draw 25.8%, Arsenal win 44.3%. The pick is Arsenal win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.4%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.