ScoreProb
Super Liga Slovakia Round 14 2026

Slovan Bratislava vs AS Trencin

Slovan Bratislava Home · Elo 1,707
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
AS Trencin Away · Elo 1,515
Venue to be confirmed Referee: B. Marhefka Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Slovan Bratislava win
Slovan Bratislava winPick
70.2%
Draw
16.5%
AS Trencin win
13.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.8%
Under 2.534.2%

How much we know

Slovan Bratislava history86 matches
AS Trencin history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (70.2%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Slovan Bratislava are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Slovan Bratislava are rated 192 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,707 against 1,515. On rating alone Slovan Bratislava would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Slovan Bratislava score more

    1.97 goals a game over 86 matches for Slovan Bratislava, against 1.46 over 71 for AS Trencin.

  • Slovan Bratislava concede fewer

    Slovan Bratislava concede 1.15 a game, AS Trencin 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Slovan Bratislava matches, against 59% for AS Trencin. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Slovan Bratislava
AS Trencin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1707.0
ELO
1515.1
86
ELO · Matches
71
1707.0
Current Team ELO
1515.1
1515.1
Current Opponent ELO
1707.0
191.9
Current ELO Difference
-191.9
0.75
Expected score
0.25
86
History Matches
71
0.11
Residual Mean
0.00
59.10
Overperformance
50.00
0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.00
2.40
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
0.90
2.50
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.80
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
71
1.92
PPG
1.35
58.1%
Win rate
38.0%
17.4%
Draw rate
21.1%
24.4%
Loss rate
40.8%
77.9%
Over 1.5 rate
73.2%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
59.2%
43.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.0%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
40
1.95
PPG
1.25
60.0%
Win rate
35.0%
15.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
45.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
42.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.5%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
40
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.97
Goals for per game
1.46
86.0%
Scoring rate
69.0%
57.0%
BTTS rate
49.3%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.55
82.5%
Scoring rate
67.5%
52.5%
BTTS rate
47.5%
3.50
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
86
History Matches
71
1.97
Goals Mean
1.46
1.42
Goals Std
1.60
86.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
54.7%
Scored 2+ rate
38.0%
34.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.54
70.9%
Conceding rate
71.8%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.63
70.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.25
Goals against per game
2.50
25.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
71
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.54
0.95
Conceded Std
1.31
36.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.9%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.5%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
14.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
71
0.88
Result entropy
0.97
1.78
Goal Difference Std
2.21
12.24
Stability score
3.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
71
39
Lead Matches
16
89.7%
Lead Win Rate
93.8%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.96
18
Trailing Matches
26
33.3%
Non-loss rate
26.9%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
75.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
56
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
14
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
0.50
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
3.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
12
Competition Season Count
8
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.62
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.90
48.90
Portability Score
44.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO191.9
PPG0.57
GF0.50
GA-0.38
PPG2.50
PPG0.70
PPG1.60
PPG1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.50
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate17.0%
Scored 2+ rate16.6%
Scored 3+ rate13.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate0.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.50
History Matches15
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score8.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.86
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches23
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate6.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.00
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.50
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range0.10
Portability Score4.31
Rest days0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match2.33
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match1.01
Current Team ELO191.9
Current Opponent ELO-191.9
Current ELO Difference383.7
Expected score0.50
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance9.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.43

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Slovan Bratislava

L
Lask Linz4–0Slovan Bratislava3 Nov · away
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 48% · missed
W
Podbrezová1–2Slovan Bratislava31 Oct · away
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 67% · hit
W
AS Trencin0–2Slovan Bratislava28 Oct · away
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 64% · hit
D
Slovan Bratislava2–2Dukla Banská Bystrica24 Oct · home
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 70% · missed
L
AS Roma4–0Slovan Bratislava20 Oct · away
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 50% · missed

AS Trencin

L
AS Trencin0–5FK Košice31 Oct · home
Pick: FK Košice 47% · hit
L
AS Trencin0–2Slovan Bratislava28 Oct · home
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 64% · hit
D
Komárno0–0AS Trencin25 Oct · away
Pick: Komárno 46% · missed
W
Skalica0–2AS Trencin17 Oct · away
Pick: Skalica 52% · missed
W
Lokomotíva Košice0–1AS Trencin14 Oct · away
Pick: AS Trencin 56% · hit

About this match

Slovan Bratislava and AS Trencin meet in Super Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Slovan Bratislava win 70.2%, draw 16.5%, AS Trencin win 13.3%. The pick is Slovan Bratislava win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.8%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.