ScoreProb
Czech Liga Czechia Round 14 2026

Slovan Liberec vs Bohemians 1905

Slovan Liberec Home · Elo 1,590
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bohemians 1905 Away · Elo 1,572
Stadion U Nisy, Liberec Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Slovan Liberec win
Slovan Liberec winPick
47.1%
Draw
26.0%
Bohemians 1905 win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.5%
Under 2.553.5%

How much we know

Slovan Liberec history67 matches
Bohemians 1905 history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Slovan Liberec are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,590 against 1,572. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Slovan Liberec score more

    1.48 goals a game over 67 matches for Slovan Liberec, against 1.25 over 67 for Bohemians 1905.

  • Slovan Liberec concede fewer

    Slovan Liberec concede 1.01 a game, Bohemians 1905 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Slovan Liberec matches, against 43% for Bohemians 1905. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Slovan Liberec
Bohemians 1905
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1590.5
ELO
1571.9
67
ELO · Matches
67
1590.5
Current Team ELO
1571.9
1571.9
Current Opponent ELO
1590.5
18.58
Current ELO Difference
-18.58
0.53
Expected score
0.47
67
History Matches
67
0.07
Residual Mean
0.04
55.29
Overperformance
52.85
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
67
1.60
PPG
1.48
44.8%
Win rate
43.3%
25.4%
Draw rate
17.9%
29.9%
Loss rate
38.8%
70.1%
Over 1.5 rate
68.7%
40.3%
Over 2.5 rate
43.3%
28.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
40
1.59
PPG
1.63
44.1%
Win rate
50.0%
26.5%
Draw rate
12.5%
29.4%
Loss rate
37.5%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.5%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
34
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.25
76.1%
Scoring rate
65.7%
46.3%
BTTS rate
41.8%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.45
73.5%
Scoring rate
67.5%
44.1%
BTTS rate
42.5%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.25
80.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
67
1.48
Goals Mean
1.25
1.34
Goals Std
1.25
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
65.7%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
37.3%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.01
Goals against per game
1.21
62.7%
Conceding rate
68.7%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.30
64.7%
Conceding rate
72.5%
0.60
Goals against per game
1.25
60.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
67
History Matches
67
1.01
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.01
Conceded Std
1.04
26.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.9%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
67
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.68
2.73
Stability score
5.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
67
19
Lead Matches
19
89.5%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.91
18
Trailing Matches
24
33.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.96
Rest days
73.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.13
35
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
30
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
1.25
60.0%
Win rate
25.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
40.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
5
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.25
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.69
0.94
Portability PPG Range
1.80
59.08
Portability Score
42.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO18.58
PPG0.12
GF0.22
GA-0.19
PPG0.75
PPG-0.04
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate10.4%
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.36
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.66
History Matches0
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-2.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.92
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.86
Portability Score16.92
Rest days3.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.13
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO18.58
Current Opponent ELO-18.58
Current ELO Difference37.16
Expected score0.05
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Slovan Liberec

W
Pardubice1–2Slovan Liberec31 Oct · away
Pick: Slovan Liberec 47% · hit
W
Slovan Liberec1–0Teplice27 Oct · home
Pick: Teplice 37% · missed
L
Sigma Olomouc1–0Slovan Liberec17 Oct · away
Pick: Sigma Olomouc 47% · hit
W
Slovan Liberec2–0Hradec Králové30 Aug · home
Pick: Slovan Liberec 38% · hit
W
Přepeře0–2Slovan Liberec26 Aug · away
Pick: Přepeře 38% · missed

Bohemians 1905

D
Bohemians 19050–0Sparta Praha1 Nov · home
Pick: Sparta Praha 46% · missed
L
Mlada Boleslav3–2Bohemians 190528 Oct · away
Pick: Mlada Boleslav 46% · hit
D
Zbrojovka Brno2–2Bohemians 190524 Oct · away
Pick: Zbrojovka Brno 56% · missed
W
Bohemians 19051–0Mlada Boleslav14 Oct · home
Pick: Bohemians 1905 37% · hit
W
Sokol Zápy2–3Bohemians 190525 Aug · away
Pick: Sokol Zápy 41% · missed

About this match

Slovan Liberec and Bohemians 1905 meet in Czech Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion U Nisy, Liberec. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Slovan Liberec win 47.1%, draw 26.0%, Bohemians 1905 win 26.9%. The pick is Slovan Liberec win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.5%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.