ScoreProb
Czech Liga Czechia Round 14 2026

Teplice vs Pardubice

Teplice Home · Elo 1,568
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pardubice Away · Elo 1,515
AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Teplice win
Teplice winPick
51.4%
Draw
25.1%
Pardubice win
23.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Teplice history69 matches
Pardubice history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Teplice are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Teplice are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,515. On rating alone Teplice would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Teplice score more

    1.35 goals a game over 69 matches for Teplice, against 1.12 over 67 for Pardubice.

  • Teplice concede fewer

    Teplice concede 1.14 a game, Pardubice 1.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Teplice matches, against 48% for Pardubice. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Teplice
Pardubice
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.5
ELO
1515.0
69
ELO · Matches
67
1568.5
Current Team ELO
1515.0
1515.0
Current Opponent ELO
1568.5
53.47
Current ELO Difference
-53.47
0.58
Expected score
0.42
69
History Matches
67
0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
53.61
Overperformance
50.68
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.70
2.10
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
67
1.41
PPG
1.13
36.2%
Win rate
29.9%
31.9%
Draw rate
23.9%
31.9%
Loss rate
46.3%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
44.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
23.2%
Over 3.5 rate
23.9%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
36
1.48
PPG
1.03
42.4%
Win rate
27.8%
21.2%
Draw rate
19.4%
36.4%
Loss rate
52.8%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
33
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.12
75.4%
Scoring rate
65.7%
46.4%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.14
69.7%
Scoring rate
61.1%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.35
Goals Mean
1.12
1.11
Goals Std
1.10
75.4%
Scored 1+ rate
65.7%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
7.5%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.55
62.3%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.64
54.5%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.40
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.17
Conceded Std
1.18
34.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.3%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
37.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
37.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
67
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.75
0.17
Stability score
3.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
67
20
Lead Matches
11
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.82
21
Trailing Matches
25
28.6%
Non-loss rate
28.0%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
38
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
27
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
0.20
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.20
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.13
Portability PPG Range
1.47
55.28
Portability Score
46.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO53.47
PPG0.27
GF0.23
GA-0.41
PPG1.20
PPG0.46
PPG1.20
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate28.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate9.7%
Scored 2+ rate6.3%
Scored 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.41
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.00
History Matches2
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score-3.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate2.3%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate0.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score8.55
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO53.47
Current Opponent ELO-53.47
Current ELO Difference106.9
Expected score0.15
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Teplice

W
Slovácko1–3Teplice31 Oct · away
Pick: Teplice 44% · hit
L
Slovan Liberec1–0Teplice27 Oct · away
Pick: Teplice 37% · missed
D
Teplice0–0Artis24 Oct · home
Pick: Teplice 49% · missed
L
Mlada Boleslav1–0Teplice17 Oct · away
Pick: Mlada Boleslav 59% · hit
W
Teplice2–0FK Jablonec30 Aug · home
Pick: FK Jablonec 44% · missed

Pardubice

L
Pardubice1–2Slovan Liberec31 Oct · home
Pick: Slovan Liberec 47% · hit
W
Slovácko1–4Pardubice28 Oct · away
Pick: Slovácko 39% · missed
W
Plzen1–2Pardubice25 Oct · away
Pick: Plzen 53% · missed
W
Pardubice3–0Zlin17 Oct · home
Pick: Pardubice 42% · hit
L
Pardubice1–2Artis29 Aug · home
Pick: Pardubice 46% · missed

About this match

Teplice and Pardubice meet in Czech Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Teplice win 51.4%, draw 25.1%, Pardubice win 23.5%. The pick is Teplice win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.