ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Southampton U21 vs Norwich City U21

Southampton U21 Home · Elo 1,509
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Norwich City U21 Away · Elo 1,463
Silverlake Stadium, Eastleigh Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Southampton U21 win
Southampton U21 winPick
53.6%
Draw
20.3%
Norwich City U21 win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.2%
No39.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%

How much we know

Southampton U21 history50 matches
Norwich City U21 history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 8 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Southampton U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Southampton U21 are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,509 against 1,463. On rating alone Southampton U21 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Southampton U21 score more

    1.90 goals a game over 50 matches for Southampton U21, against 1.44 over 43 for Norwich City U21.

  • Southampton U21 concede fewer

    Southampton U21 concede 1.68 a game, Norwich City U21 2.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    70% of Southampton U21 matches, against 74% for Norwich City U21. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Southampton U21
Norwich City U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1508.6
ELO
1463.2
50
ELO · Matches
43
1508.6
Current Team ELO
1463.2
1463.2
Current Opponent ELO
1508.6
45.30
Current ELO Difference
-45.30
0.56
Expected score
0.44
50
History Matches
43
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.04
50.26
Overperformance
47.23
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.67
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
43
1.46
PPG
1.00
38.0%
Win rate
25.6%
32.0%
Draw rate
23.3%
30.0%
Loss rate
51.2%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.7%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.4%
44.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
22
1.75
PPG
1.14
45.8%
Win rate
31.8%
37.5%
Draw rate
18.2%
16.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
81.8%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.90
Goals for per game
1.44
84.0%
Scoring rate
79.1%
76.0%
BTTS rate
72.1%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.64
87.5%
Scoring rate
86.4%
75.0%
BTTS rate
77.3%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
50
History Matches
43
1.90
Goals Mean
1.44
1.45
Goals Std
1.15
84.0%
Scored 1+ rate
79.1%
58.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.9%
26.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
2.09
88.0%
Conceding rate
93.0%
1.54
Goals against per game
2.00
87.5%
Conceding rate
90.9%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
50
History Matches
43
1.68
Conceded Mean
2.09
1.10
Conceded Std
1.16
48.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
67.4%
26.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.9%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.0%
Clean-sheet rate
7.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.0%
Clean-sheet rate
7.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.9%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
12.0%
Clean-sheet rate
7.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
43
1.00
Result entropy
0.94
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.67
0.47
Stability score
6.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
43
16
Lead Matches
11
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
45.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.58
16
Trailing Matches
16
37.5%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.21
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
76.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
11
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.54
1.51
Portability PPG Range
1.44
44.11
Portability Score
47.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO45.30
PPG0.46
GF0.46
GA-0.41
PPG-2.00
PPG0.61
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.46
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate4.9%
Scored 2+ rate16.1%
Scored 3+ rate12.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.41
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches7
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-5.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate29.5%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate6.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score-3.75
Rest days1.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.61
Current Team ELO45.30
Current Opponent ELO-45.30
Current ELO Difference90.61
Expected score0.13
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Southampton U21

L
Blackburn Rovers U212–1Southampton U2130 Oct · away
Pick: Southampton U21 65% · missed
W
Crystal Palace U212–5Southampton U2126 Oct · away
Pick: Crystal Palace U21 40% · missed
D
Southampton U211–1Juventus U2120 Oct · home
Pick: Southampton U21 78% · missed
W
Boston United5–6Southampton U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Boston United 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Norwich City U21

L
Braintree3–1Norwich City U213 Nov · away
Pick: Braintree 55% · hit
W
Derby County U213–4Norwich City U2126 Oct · away
Pick: Derby County U21 41% · missed
D
Norwich City U211–1Bristol City U2121 Oct · home
Pick: Bristol City U21 42% · missed
W
Norwich City U214–2West Ham United U2116 Oct · home
Pick: Norwich City U21 43% · hit
L
Aldershot Town5–3Norwich City U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Aldershot Town 60% · hit

About this match

Southampton U21 and Norwich City U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Silverlake Stadium, Eastleigh. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Southampton U21 win 53.6%, draw 20.3%, Norwich City U21 win 26.1%. The pick is Southampton U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.0%. Both teams to score: 60.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.