ScoreProb
Erovnuli Liga Georgia Round 32 2026

Spaeri vs Dinamo Batumi

Spaeri Home · Elo 1,492
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Batumi Away · Elo 1,533
Spaeri Stadium, Tbilisi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spaeri win
Spaeri winPick
42.2%
Draw
25.9%
Dinamo Batumi win
32.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%

How much we know

Spaeri history75 matches
Dinamo Batumi history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Spaeri are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Batumi are rated 41 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,533 against 1,492. On rating alone Dinamo Batumi would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.44 goals a game over 75 matches for Spaeri, against 1.32 over 71 for Dinamo Batumi.

  • Spaeri concede fewer

    Spaeri concede 1.25 a game, Dinamo Batumi 1.69.

  • Dinamo Batumi games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Spaeri matches, against 59% for Dinamo Batumi. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Spaeri
Dinamo Batumi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1491.9
ELO
1532.8
75
ELO · Matches
71
1491.9
Current Team ELO
1532.8
1532.8
Current Opponent ELO
1491.9
-40.88
Current ELO Difference
40.88
0.44
Expected score
0.56
75
History Matches
71
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
49.22
Overperformance
50.61
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.60
2.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
2.20
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
71
1.40
PPG
1.27
34.7%
Win rate
33.8%
36.0%
Draw rate
25.4%
29.3%
Loss rate
40.8%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.7%
50.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.2%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.2%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
42
1.33
PPG
1.10
33.3%
Win rate
26.2%
33.3%
Draw rate
31.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
36
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.32
76.0%
Scoring rate
76.1%
57.3%
BTTS rate
57.7%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.21
80.6%
Scoring rate
69.0%
61.1%
BTTS rate
54.8%
1.36
Goals for per game
1.59
77.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
68.2%
BTTS rate
59.1%
75
History Matches
71
1.44
Goals Mean
1.32
1.24
Goals Std
1.14
76.0%
Scored 1+ rate
76.1%
38.7%
Scored 2+ rate
35.2%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.69
69.3%
Conceding rate
77.5%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.74
72.2%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.45
77.3%
Conceding rate
81.8%
75
History Matches
71
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.17
Conceded Std
1.45
34.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.9%
16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.9%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.9%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
71
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.59
Goal Difference Std
2.05
0.35
Stability score
1.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
70
29
Lead Matches
29
65.5%
Lead Win Rate
65.5%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.75
20
Trailing Matches
21
45.0%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
53
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.05
PPG
1.55
22.7%
Win rate
40.9%
36.4%
Draw rate
31.8%
40.9%
Loss rate
27.3%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
68.2%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.05
Current Competition PPG
1.55
-0.09
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.14
8
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.73
Portability PPG Range
1.75
62.13
Portability Score
39.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-40.88
PPG0.13
GF0.12
GA-0.44
PPG-0.50
PPG0.24
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate3.5%
Scored 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.46
Stability score-1.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate26.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.23
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.45
Portability PPG Range-1.02
Portability Score22.27
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Current Team ELO-40.88
Current Opponent ELO40.88
Current ELO Difference-81.76
Expected score-0.12
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.48

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Spaeri

D
Samgurali0–0Spaeri31 Oct · away
Pick: Spaeri 38% · missed
D
Spaeri0–0Gagra23 Oct · home
Pick: Spaeri 49% · missed
L
Dinamo Tbilisi3–1Spaeri18 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Tbilisi 49% · hit
L
Dinamo Batumi3–0Spaeri30 Aug · away
Pick: Dinamo Batumi 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dinamo Batumi

W
Dinamo Batumi1–0Meshakhte1 Nov · home
Pick: Dinamo Batumi 59% · hit
W
Dinamo Batumi3–1Dila28 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Batumi 40% · hit
W
Dinamo Batumi3–0Samgurali24 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Batumi 51% · hit
W
Gagra1–3Dinamo Batumi17 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Batumi 44% · hit
W
Dinamo Batumi3–0Spaeri30 Aug · home
Pick: Dinamo Batumi 47% · hit

About this match

Spaeri and Dinamo Batumi meet in Erovnuli Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Spaeri Stadium, Tbilisi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Spaeri win 42.2%, draw 25.9%, Dinamo Batumi win 32.0%. The pick is Spaeri win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.5%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.