ScoreProb
Tweede Divisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Spakenburg vs Kloetinge

Spakenburg Home · Elo 1,551
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kloetinge Away · Elo 1,620
Sportpark De Westmaat, Spakenburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spakenburg win
Spakenburg winPick
43.6%
Draw
21.5%
Kloetinge win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.0%
No34.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.4%
Under 2.528.6%

How much we know

Spakenburg history58 matches
Kloetinge history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Spakenburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kloetinge are rated 69 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,620 against 1,551. On rating alone Kloetinge would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.07 goals a game over 58 matches for Spakenburg, against 2.06 over 49 for Kloetinge.

  • Kloetinge concede fewer

    Spakenburg concede 1.78 a game, Kloetinge 1.37.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    72% of Spakenburg matches, against 71% for Kloetinge. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Spakenburg
Kloetinge@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.0
ELO
1620.3
58
ELO · Matches
49
1551.0
Current Team ELO
1620.3
1620.3
Current Opponent ELO
1551.0
-69.34
Current ELO Difference
69.34
0.40
Expected score
0.60
58
History Matches
49
0.05
Residual Mean
0.12
53.73
Overperformance
58.19
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
3.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
49
1.59
PPG
2.02
46.6%
Win rate
59.2%
19.0%
Draw rate
24.5%
34.5%
Loss rate
16.3%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
91.8%
72.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
55.2%
Over 3.5 rate
46.9%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
26
2.03
PPG
1.69
64.5%
Win rate
46.2%
9.7%
Draw rate
30.8%
25.8%
Loss rate
23.1%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
74.2%
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
61.3%
Over 3.5 rate
53.8%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
31
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.07
Goals for per game
2.06
91.4%
Scoring rate
89.8%
72.4%
BTTS rate
71.4%
2.45
Goals for per game
2.00
96.8%
Scoring rate
84.6%
71.0%
BTTS rate
73.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
49
2.07
Goals Mean
2.06
1.38
Goals Std
1.19
91.4%
Scored 1+ rate
89.8%
62.1%
Scored 2+ rate
71.4%
36.2%
Scored 3+ rate
30.6%
2.45
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
1.37
79.3%
Conceding rate
79.6%
1.68
Goals against per game
1.54
74.2%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
49
1.78
Conceded Mean
1.37
1.51
Conceded Std
1.04
46.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
27.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
8.6%
Failed-to-score rate
10.2%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
3.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
8.6%
Failed-to-score rate
10.2%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
3.2%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
49
0.95
Result entropy
0.87
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.64
5.48
Stability score
13.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
38
21
Lead Matches
17
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.86
17
Trailing Matches
8
23.5%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.29
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.06
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
33
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.16
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.28
69.43
Portability Score
78.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-69.34
PPG-0.43
GF0.01
GA0.41
PPG-0.50
PPG0.34
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate1.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches9
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.47
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Conceded 2+ rate7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches9
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.44
Stability score-7.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.30
Portability Score-9.00
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-69.34
Current Opponent ELO69.34
Current ELO Difference-138.7
Expected score-0.20
History Matches9
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Spakenburg

L
Ijsselmeervogels2–1Spakenburg24 Oct · away
Pick: Ijsselmeervogels 42% · hit
D
Spakenburg1–1Quick Boys17 Oct · home
Pick: Quick Boys 53% · missed
W
Hoek0–2Spakenburg29 Aug · away
Pick: Hoek 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kloetinge

L
Kloetinge0–2Cambuur27 Oct · home
Pick: Cambuur 40% · hit
L
Kloetinge1–3Katwijk24 Oct · home
Pick: Kloetinge 57% · missed
L
Koninklijke HFC2–1Kloetinge17 Oct · away
Pick: Kloetinge 54% · missed
W
NSVV2–4Kloetinge1 Sep · away
Pick: Kloetinge 42% · hit
L
Quick Boys4–0Kloetinge29 Aug · away
Pick: Quick Boys 65% · hit

About this match

Spakenburg and Kloetinge meet in Tweede Divisie on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Sportpark De Westmaat, Spakenburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Spakenburg win 43.6%, draw 21.5%, Kloetinge win 34.9%. The pick is Spakenburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.4%. Both teams to score: 66.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.