ScoreProb
3. liga - West Slovakia West - 14 2026

Spartak Myjava vs Rača

Spartak Myjava Home · Elo 1,607
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rača Away · Elo 1,469
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spartak Myjava win
Spartak Myjava winPick
64.8%
Draw
20.5%
Rača win
14.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%

How much we know

Spartak Myjava history53 matches
Rača history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Spartak Myjava are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Spartak Myjava are rated 138 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,607 against 1,469. On rating alone Spartak Myjava would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Spartak Myjava score more

    2.09 goals a game over 53 matches for Spartak Myjava, against 1.43 over 47 for Rača.

  • Spartak Myjava concede fewer

    Spartak Myjava concede 0.94 a game, Rača 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Spartak Myjava matches, against 49% for Rača. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Spartak Myjava
Rača
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1606.5
ELO
1468.9
53
ELO · Matches
47
1606.5
Current Team ELO
1468.9
1468.9
Current Opponent ELO
1606.5
137.6
Current ELO Difference
-137.6
0.69
Expected score
0.31
53
History Matches
47
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.04
56.98
Overperformance
47.52
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.44
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
47
1.91
PPG
1.28
52.8%
Win rate
34.0%
32.1%
Draw rate
25.5%
15.1%
Loss rate
40.4%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.9%
43.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
24
2.38
PPG
1.04
73.1%
Win rate
25.0%
19.2%
Draw rate
29.2%
7.7%
Loss rate
45.8%
96.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.09
Goals for per game
1.43
81.1%
Scoring rate
78.7%
50.9%
BTTS rate
57.4%
2.73
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
47
2.09
Goals Mean
1.43
1.70
Goals Std
1.23
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
58.5%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
35.8%
Scored 3+ rate
17.0%
2.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.47
60.4%
Conceding rate
74.5%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.58
50.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
2.67
Goals against per game
2.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
47
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.04
Conceded Std
1.53
22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.0%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
47
0.90
Result entropy
0.98
2.09
Goal Difference Std
1.97
10.14
Stability score
1.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
46
25
Lead Matches
13
88.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.77
6
Trailing Matches
17
16.7%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.13
Rest days
75.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
23
2.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
26
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.33
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.33
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.68
0.59
Portability PPG Range
1.67
66.02
Portability Score
42.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO137.6
PPG0.63
GF0.67
GA-0.52
PPG1.00
PPG1.34
PPG1.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.67
Goals Std0.46
Scored 1+ rate2.4%
Scored 2+ rate22.3%
Scored 3+ rate18.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.25
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.49
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.89
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score8.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate18.8%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate4.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score23.82
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.75
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO137.6
Current Opponent ELO-137.6
Current ELO Difference275.3
Expected score0.38
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Spartak Myjava

D
Spartak Myjava1–1DAC II23 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Myjava 52% · missed
L
Baník Prievidza3–2Spartak Myjava17 Oct · away
Pick: Baník Prievidza 41% · hit
L
Spartak Myjava0–3Ružomberok14 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Myjava 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rača

L
Rača1–8Púchov1 Nov · home
Pick: Púchov 49% · hit
L
Dunajská Lužná2–1Rača24 Oct · away
Pick: Dunajská Lužná 44% · hit
L
Rača0–3Komárno II18 Oct · home
Pick: Rača 53% · missed
L
Rača1–2Gabčíkovo30 Aug · home
Pick: Rača 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Spartak Myjava and Rača meet in 3. liga - West on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Spartak Myjava win 64.8%, draw 20.5%, Rača win 14.8%. The pick is Spartak Myjava win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 57.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.