ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone F Italy Group F - 11 2026

Sporting Trestina vs Foligno Calcio

Sporting Trestina Home · Elo 1,479
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Foligno Calcio Away · Elo 1,498
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sporting Trestina win
Sporting Trestina winPick
45.6%
Draw
30.3%
Foligno Calcio win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.8%
No52.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%

How much we know

Sporting Trestina history50 matches
Foligno Calcio history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sporting Trestina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,479 against 1,498. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Foligno Calcio score more

    1.04 goals a game over 50 matches for Sporting Trestina, against 1.29 over 35 for Foligno Calcio.

  • Foligno Calcio concede fewer

    Sporting Trestina concede 1.30 a game, Foligno Calcio 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Sporting Trestina matches, against 34% for Foligno Calcio. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sporting Trestina
Foligno Calcio
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1478.9
ELO
1497.6
50
ELO · Matches
35
1478.9
Current Team ELO
1497.6
1497.6
Current Opponent ELO
1478.9
-18.72
Current ELO Difference
18.72
0.47
Expected score
0.53
50
History Matches
35
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
48.57
Overperformance
49.89
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.20
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.10
Goals for per game
0.70
1.30
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
35
1.18
PPG
1.46
28.0%
Win rate
40.0%
34.0%
Draw rate
25.7%
38.0%
Loss rate
34.3%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
38.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.3%
14.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
17
1.48
PPG
1.06
40.0%
Win rate
29.4%
28.0%
Draw rate
17.6%
32.0%
Loss rate
52.9%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
24.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
8.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
25
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.04
Goals for per game
1.29
70.0%
Scoring rate
65.7%
54.0%
BTTS rate
45.7%
0.92
Goals for per game
1.06
60.0%
Scoring rate
58.8%
32.0%
BTTS rate
41.2%
50
History Matches
35
1.04
Goals Mean
1.29
0.92
Goals Std
1.21
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
65.7%
26.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
6.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
0.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
1.11
76.0%
Conceding rate
68.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.35
64.0%
Conceding rate
70.6%
50
History Matches
35
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.14
Conceded Std
0.98
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.4%
12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
35
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.31
Goal Difference Std
1.44
0.70
Stability score
1.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
35
11
Lead Matches
12
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.89
12
Trailing Matches
7
33.3%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
101.9
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
35
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
13
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.05
Portability PPG Std
—
0.09
Portability PPG Range
—
91.54
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-18.72
PPG-0.28
GF-0.25
GA0.19
PPG0.42
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches15
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate4.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches15
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate0.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches15
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-0.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate19.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-87.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-18.72
Current Opponent ELO18.72
Current ELO Difference-37.43
Expected score-0.05
History Matches15
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sporting Trestina

W
Recanatese0–1Sporting Trestina1 Nov · away
Pick: Sporting Trestina 40% · hit
L
Ancona2–0Sporting Trestina4 Oct · away
Pick: Ancona 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Foligno Calcio

W
Foligno Calcio3–1Vigor Senigallia1 Nov · home
Pick: Foligno Calcio 36% · hit
L
L'Aquila3–2Foligno Calcio25 Oct · away
Pick: L'Aquila 53% · hit
L
Foligno Calcio0–1Real Giulianova18 Oct · home
Pick: Foligno Calcio 40% · missed
W
Foligno Calcio1–0Angelana4 Oct · home
Pick: Foligno Calcio 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sporting Trestina and Foligno Calcio meet in Serie D - Girone F on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sporting Trestina win 45.6%, draw 30.3%, Foligno Calcio win 24.1%. The pick is Sporting Trestina win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.0%. Both teams to score: 47.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.