ScoreProb
First Amateur Division Belgium VV - 11 2026

Spouwen-Mopertingen vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

Spouwen-Mopertingen Home · Elo 1,531
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen win
Spouwen-Mopertingen winPick
58.0%
Draw
17.4%
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win
24.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.1%
Under 2.534.9%

How much we know

Spouwen-Mopertingen history46 matches
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Spouwen-Mopertingen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Spouwen-Mopertingen are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,496. On rating alone Spouwen-Mopertingen would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.67 goals a game over 46 matches for Spouwen-Mopertingen, against 1.57 over 42 for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar.

  • Defences are close

    Spouwen-Mopertingen concede 1.57 a game, Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 1.60.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Spouwen-Mopertingen matches, against 60% for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Spouwen-Mopertingen
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1531.2
ELO
1495.7
46
ELO · Matches
42
1531.2
Current Team ELO
1495.7
1495.7
Current Opponent ELO
1531.2
35.47
Current ELO Difference
-35.47
0.55
Expected score
0.45
46
History Matches
42
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
52.68
Overperformance
49.33
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.50
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
2.30
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
42
1.43
PPG
1.36
39.1%
Win rate
35.7%
26.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
34.8%
Loss rate
35.7%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
67.4%
Over 2.5 rate
59.5%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
22
1.33
PPG
0.95
37.5%
Win rate
22.7%
20.8%
Draw rate
27.3%
41.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.67
Goals for per game
1.57
73.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.45
79.2%
Scoring rate
59.1%
62.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
46
History Matches
42
1.67
Goals Mean
1.57
1.38
Goals Std
1.33
73.9%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
54.3%
Scored 2+ rate
54.8%
26.1%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.57
Goals against per game
1.60
60.9%
Conceding rate
64.3%
1.88
Goals against per game
2.05
70.8%
Conceding rate
77.3%
46
History Matches
42
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.62
Conceded Std
1.50
45.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.4%
28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.2%
1.88
Venue Conceded Mean
2.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
42
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
2.22
Goal Difference Std
1.85
1.24
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
41
16
Lead Matches
14
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.83
10
Trailing Matches
13
10.0%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
1.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.09
Rest days
195.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
17
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.44
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.89
Portability PPG Range
0.27
52.99
Portability Score
78.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO35.47
PPG0.08
GF0.10
GA-0.03
PPG0.38
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.23
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.62
Portability Score-25.96
Rest days-104.2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO35.47
Current Opponent ELO-35.47
Current ELO Difference70.94
Expected score0.10
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Spouwen-Mopertingen

W
Hoogstraten0–1Spouwen-Mopertingen31 Oct · away
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 42% · hit
L
Spouwen-Mopertingen0–3Thes Sport23 Oct · home
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 40% · missed
W
Dessel Sport3–4Spouwen-Mopertingen17 Oct · away
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 51% · hit
D
Roeselare Daisel1–1Spouwen-Mopertingen30 Aug · away
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

L
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar1–2Zelzate31 Oct · home
Pick: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 41% · missed
W
Harelbeke0–3Lyra-Lierse Berlaar25 Oct · away
Pick: Harelbeke 50% · missed
L
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar0–1Houtvenne17 Oct · home
Pick: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 42% · missed
D
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar3–3Thes Sport29 Aug · home
Pick: Thes Sport 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Spouwen-Mopertingen and Lyra-Lierse Berlaar meet in First Amateur Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Spouwen-Mopertingen win 58.0%, draw 17.4%, Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win 24.5%. The pick is Spouwen-Mopertingen win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.1%. Both teams to score: 58.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.